Arthur Starting Off the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season This Week?

  The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1st, but it has taken nearly a month for the first threat of a tropical system to really turn heads.  This week, we could be looking at our first named storm, which would be Arthur.  At this time, a cluster of showers and storms are meandering off the of the eastern coast of Southern Florida, associated with a weak low pressure center.  This system is slowly moving to the southwest at 5 mph but is likely to head northward over the coming days.

  Models are currently sticking to roughly the same trend, track-wise: bringing the system north-northwestward, hugging the coast.  The system then would make a possible landfall in North Carolina before tracking out to sea again and coming within a couple hundred miles off the coast of New Jersey.  Speaking about intensity, the system will be moving along the coast ahead of a trough, which is favorable for upward vertical motion of air and strengthening.  As of now, it appears that this system could become at least Tropical Storm Arthur before completely moving out to sea.

What does this mean for New Jersey?

  The combination of cold frontal boundaries passing through this week and a tropical system moving off the coast from the south will lead to a variety of wet and possibly severe weather.  First, as the cold front approaches from the west, we could be looking at the possibility of showers and storms, some of which could be severe, for Wednesday through Friday (slight chance for Tuesday).  Furthermore, the tropical system will add tropical moisture from the south to our area.  As it moves off the New Jersey Coast, though it will not make landfall, the possibility for strong wave activity, rip currents, and strong winds (especially along the immediate coast) is possible.  The possibility is there for this tropical system to cause issues from beach-goers for the Fourth of July and early parts of the weekend.

Below: Currently the most likely track for the tropical system

Last Arthur in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin

2008

Tropical Storm Arthur

Max Winds: 45mph, Minimum Pressure: 1004mb

Made landfall in Mexico

  

Updated Snow Map for March 16-17, 2014

I have updated my snow map to account for the likely shift in heavier precipitation toward the north.

Updated Snow Map

Late-Season Snowstorm Set to Clip New Jersey

    Another week and another storm…but this is déjà vu for forecasters, as this closely resembles the same situation that occurred with the storm in early March.  A low pressure system will push from west to east to the south of our region.  However, cold, dry air from the north will flow into our region and set up a sharp gradient between those who see snow and who don't. 

Timing

    Precipitation should enter the region Sunday night and last until Monday afternoon.  After that, scattered flurries/snow showers could linger throughout the Mid-Atlantic.  The further south you are, the more likely it is that you see a longer duration in snowfall.

Snowfall

    The dry air being ushered into our region has the chance to keep all accumulating snow south of Philadelphia.  Therefore, in the snow map that follows, I have first labeled an area, within the dashed lines, as ‘Area of highest uncertainty’.  I believe that the line between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow showers/flurries will setup.  Then, the light blue swath is ‘T-2’, which represents an area where I believe that anything from flurries to 2” of snow may fall.  Finally, the ‘2-5’ swath is where I think the heaviest axis of snow will fall.  Also, warmer surface temperatures will likely affect how much snow actually sticks, but that is one of the challenges with forecasting in March.  In summary, the further south you go the better of a chance you have at accumulating snowfall.

Snowfall Map

Final Call for March 2nd/3rd Snowstorm

Overview

    Well, this storm has been extremely frustrating to forecast, and it looks like this will be the reversal of what we usually see in a Northeast/Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.  We’ll actually see snow totals increase as you head south, with the bulls-eye area ranging from Maryland into South Jersey.  Just 48-72 hours ago, the models agreed on a big snowfall over North/Central Jersey, but that has shifted well south, and that is why we have the predicted snow totals that we have today.

    

    Anyway, this storm is essentially moving from west to east, and a relatively narrow band of heavier snow will move through the region.  This band has been heavily influenced by the polar vortex over Canada, which has suppressed the biggest snowfall estimates to the south.  Therefore, we’ll likely see a sharp cutoff toward Central/North Jersey where areas see up to a half of a foot of snow and others see almost nothing.  Any change in storm track, no matter how small, from what is expected will alter snowfall totals.  In summary, the further north that you go, the less snow that you will see.  Behind this system, expect very cold temperatures, which has been the other story of this winter along with the high seasonal snowfall.

Timing

    The duration of this storm has greatly decreased for New Jersey, at least.  Scattered rain/snow showers this afternoon will move across the region, then the main bulk of the snow moves in this evening.  Snow will continue throughout the night and into the morning and begin to end from northwest to southeast.  The last of the snowfall will likely taper off by the afternoon hours of Monday.

Final Call Snowfall Map

First Call Snow Map for 3/2-3/4 Winter Storm

First Call Snow Map

*This map is a representation of my first thoughts on totals and is subject to change*

    Essentially, with the storm still being a few days away, it is hard to put too much into this map.  There are still uncertainties about the exact track and of how much mixing will occur, where it would occur, and how much that mixing line would move.  Therefore, it looks like temperatures will be an issue for the immediate southern NJ coast, which is why I placed them at 2-4" because this area will likely just end as snow after rain/mixing.  The rest of the state is really up for grabs.  

4-8+" Range

  This area captures around 75% of South Jersey.  I'll start off by saying that this area's snowfall will be very dependent on the mixing line, which is why I added the '+' in there.  Simply put, the less mixing, the bigger the totals.  The latest model runs have brought colder temperatures and more snowfall to this area, but we'll see if future model runs continue to run with this output.

6-12+" Range

   This range encompasses around 70% of the state and has that pesky '+' sign on the end of it.  It pretty much extends from southern Philadelphia and northward.  As of now, it appears that this is the area where the precipitation will likely stay mostly or all snow, especially the further north that you go.  I believe that, based on the information available, that localized areas in this range could see 12"+.  This will depend on where heavy banding occurs.

    Anyway, these are my first thoughts on actual snowfall totals, and the map is very subject to change and likely will by tomorrow night/Sunday morning when I can likely narrow down the snowfall estimates a bit.

Early March Winter Storm (Early Thoughts)

Overview
    Last week's warm-up is already a distant memory as bitter cold temperatures have overtaken our region yet again, and another winter storm is making its way toward our area.  All of the models have been in agreement on this storm for a few days now (a rarity), but the battle between the cold and warm temperatures is making precipitation type forecasting extremely tricky.  My first, general thoughts are that the further south you are, the more rain/mixing you see and vice versa as you head north.  The mixing line looks like it will start toward northern New Jersey and make its way down throughout the storm, with all parts of the state under snowfall by the end of the time period.  Speaking of which, the time frame looks to be Sunday through early Tuesday morning, starting from west to east.

    Below are three maps that summarize my early thoughts on the storm and give some general insights...

Current Infrared Satellite Image

    Above is where the general source of our impending storm currently is, which is just off of the Pacific Coast.  This system will move onshore and bring plenty of rain to the west before bringing its energy across the United States and helping to fuel our winter storm.

My Thoughts on the Set-up

    Here, there are a few things going on that I will explain.  First, a cold front will move out of Canada and push into our region around the red line.  There, it will become stationary and this is where the battle of the warm temperatures from the south and cold temperatures of the north will set up.  The red circle is the area where I believe that the mixing line will have its greatest affect as it moves during the storm.  Finally, a series of low pressure centers will ride along the stationary front, as depicted by the L's on the map.

First Call Snow Map (No Totals Yet)

    Essentially, the map pretty much speaks for itself.  Want the best chance of all snow throughout the storm?  Head north!  Anyway, if things pan out according to current model guidance, be aware that we would be talking around a foot of snow, or more, for the hardest hit areas...but that is only if current model information verifies!  The storm is still off the coast, models will likely change a bit, and things will change, which is the usual with any winter storm.

Slightly Adjusted Snow Map

My Final Snowfall Map

Impending Nor'easter Moves Into the Area Tonight

Overview

The major winter storm that has been modeled for several days now is coming to fruition and will impact the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast tonight into Friday morning.  The center of the storm is currently located in the Southeast and will track toward the northeast up the Atlantic coast.  Plenty of Atlantic and Gulf moisture accompanies this storm and plenty of it will fall across our region.  Models even up until 12 hours before the start of the nor’easter’s impacts are all over and causing uncertainty about the storm’s exact track and snow accumulations.  Regardless, the storm will bring a mixed bag of precipitation in the form of snow, sleet, rain, and the possibility of even some freezing rain.  Furthermore, wind gusts of 30mph+ are likely inland, while coastal areas could see gusts of 50mph+ and coastal flooding, as the winds whip off of the Atlantic Ocean.

Timing

                Some scattered snow showers ahead of the storm should be moving in between 9pm and midnight tonight, with the bulk of the snow impacting the area during the overnight hours.  During the day on Thursday, the rain/snow line will likely push inland, bringing sleet and rain to most, or all, of the area.  Some dry air (called a dry slot) may move into South Jersey, bringing lighter to no precipitation, before the backside of the system moves through.  As the backside pushes through, colder air will funnel into the region and accumulating snowfall will likely occur into Thursday night, before the last of the snow tapers off during the early hours of Friday.  Essentially, snow will accumulate overnight tonight and tomorrow evening, with no definite answer as to what exactly will fall during the day tomorrow.

How much?

                Due to the complexity of the system, uncertainty is still there with the battle between warm and cold air.  As the day progresses tomorrow, the rain/snow line will push inland toward Philadelphia and Central NJ.  However, the extent of this movement inland is still unknown, which is why snow total forecasts are still unclear.  My best guess is 6-12” along the I-95 corridor and progressively less as you head toward the shore due to more mixing/rain.  Some models have shown a decent amount of rain/sleet, which is why there is a potential for a busted snow forecast, but some give upwards of a foot or more, so 12”+ cannot be ruled out for the area on the map that I labeled “Are of Uncertainty”.  For this same reason, I added the ‘+’ at the end of the 3-6” zone due to the unknown nature of the rain/snow line tomorrow.  Essentially, if the storm stays mostly snow, upwards of 12”+ is possible but more mixing/rain could lead to the low end of the forecasted ranges. 

                If anything changes, I will post updates and an updated snow map if needed!

My Projected Snowfall Map

Current Radar

General Overview: First Call Forecast for Mid-Atlantic Nor'easter

                Yet another winter storm is set to strike our region.  A major nor’easter, which has been modeled for several days now and referred to as the “Valentine’s Day Storm” for reference, has its eyes on New Jersey after covering the Southeast in ice and snow tomorrow.  This is my first call forecast for the storm, so it will be very general and just give a brief overview and initial snow map.  Here are the main points:

                The first flurries/snow showers should move in Wednesday evening, with the main portion of the storm entering around midnight.  The storm will roughly last 20-24 hours, so the last flakes should fly on Thursday night.  The rain/snow line, which hasn’t been much of a factor at all this season, will likely come into play for this storm and possibly limit snowfall amounts, especially the closer to the coastline you are.  Also, ice accumulations in portions of NJ could be an additional issue.

                Furthermore, being a nor’easter with strong winds blowing off of the ocean, coastal flooding could be a moderate concern with this winter storm.  Winds inland will likely gust 20-30mph+, and coastal areas could see gusts of 40-50mph+.  Snowfall-wise, it looks like the heaviest axis of snow will set up along the I-95 corridor, and then snow amounts will likely decrease closer to the shore due to the relatively warm, ocean air’s influence.  The less mixing/rain, the higher the snowfall totals will be, so areas closer to the coast do have the potential to have decent accumulations if the rain/snow line doesn’t have a large influence.

                I will have a more detailed forecast and snow map by tomorrow afternoon, so stay tuned!  This was just a general overview.

*Snowfall map may be fine-tuned in a future post as this is just a first call and not my final forecast*

My First Call Snowfall Map

Potential for Major Ice Storm Tonight

*Ice storms are very sensitive to temperature, so predicting exactly where sees how much ice/snow can be difficult.  Therefore, it’s not going to be completely known what will really happen until the storm is moving in.*

Overview

This is round 2 for winter storms this week, with a possible round 3 coming over the weekend.  However, tonight’s winter storm looks like it will be a nasty one right now, as most of New Jersey will see almost every type of precipitation possible: snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain.  A low pressure system chugging across the US will move through our area bringing plenty of liquid with it. 

Snow in the beginning of the storm will changeover to sleet/freezing rain as warm air runs over the cold air near the surface.  As the precipitation falls, it will fall as liquid and encounter the below-freezing air close to the surface which will cause that liquid to re-freeze producing sleet or freezing rain, depending on how ‘deep’ the cold layer is (P.S. Hail and sleet are not the same thing!).  Then, as sunrise comes, the cold layer near the surface will disappear, causing the liquid to fall to the surface without freezing.  This is the rain that will fall during the morning before the storm ends.

Timing

Snow/sleet/rain will enter the area between 10pm and 2am tonight from the southwest to northeast.  As usual, the farther south you are, the higher the chance of seeing less frozen precipitation and seeing more rain.  The mixing line will push north throughout the night and all of South Jersey will likely be rain by 6-8am.  The precipitation should taper off during the afternoon.  

Totals

Snowfall totals will increase the farther north you go.  The southern and Atlantic coast will likely see no snow/sleet accumulations and slowly increase as you move northward.  Northern South Jersey (if that makes sense to you) will likely see the best chance for any accumulating snow before the changeover.  Sleet/freezing rain will fall overnight and all of South Jersey should be rain by the morning rush hour.  

Projected Snow/Ice Map

Current National Radar

Final Snowfall Map

This is my new and final snow map that more accurately depicts my thoughts about tomorrow's snowfall.  It seems like the rain/snow line will set up farther north than originally thought, which is why I have reduced totals in the southern half of NJ.  

The 3-7"+ has the possibility of 7"+ if less rain falls than thought, however temperatures are slow to fall at this time.  When the storm moves in, we'll see how the rain/snow line sets up...

New Snowfall Map

Quick-Moving Storm Set to Hit New Jersey on Monday

Overview

Yet another snowstorm is on its way, as the active winter season continues for southern NJ.  For several days now, this storm has been modeled, but the exact track has been up in the air until the last day or two.  The low pressure center will move just to our south and quickly move out to sea.  Now unlike previous storms, we will not have the bitter cold temperatures and high winds causing low wind chills and high liquid-to-snow ratios.  Therefore, the snow associated with this system will be heavy and wet and will not accumulate as well as a more fluffy snow in colder air (better for snowballs, though!). 

Furthermore, we’ll have that pesky rain/snow line set up in southern NJ, which will be a factor for how much snow South Jersey sees.  It appears as if the rain/snow line will set up near Philadelphia and move southward throughout the storm.  Also, low winds will be another feature to this storm that is different than past storms this winter.  Even along the coast, wind gusts are only expected to reach 20-25mph.  Finally, this storm does have the potential to bust if the area sees rain longer than expected, which increases in potential as you head further south.

Temperatures

Near Freezing, low- to mid-30’s, with wind chills in the 20’s (relatively ‘warm’ compared to the rest of this winter)

Timing

Precipitation begins to enter the area in the early AM hours of Monday (1-4 AM), with the rain/snow line setting up near Philadelphia (Most, if not all, of southern NJ will likely begin as light rain).  The rain/snow line will quickly begin its southerly push by sunrise.  The heaviest of the snow should fall during the morning through the early afternoon.  Finally, the snow will taper off by the evening.   

Snowfall

Highest amounts will likely accumulate within a swath from Philadelphia to Raritan Bay.  Areas southward will likely accumulate less due to mixing with sleet and rain and areas of North Jersey should be cut off from the heavier snow.  Unfortunately, for snow lovers at least, I don’t see much of a ‘BOOM’ factor like past storms because the storm will just be too quick-moving.  

My Projected Snowfall Map

Another January Snowstorm With Bitter Cold Temperatures

Unfortunately, this snowstorm was a ‘surprise’ for many, despite the best model (EURO) having it within its cross-hairs since Wednesday.  Regardless, this storm will be similar to the earlier January snowstorm with up to a foot of snow and very cold temperatures expected.  This storm will bring bitter cold temperatures, negative wind chills, plenty of snow, and some gusty winds.

Temperatures and Wind

First, tomorrow will see plummeting temperatures as they near 20° throughout the day, then drop to around 10° overnight, with wind chills below 0° or even approaching -10°.  Temperatures for Wednesday will remain in the teens will not make it above 30° until Saturday, most likely.  Furthermore, the winds that will be creating these severe wind chills will be occurring tomorrow and into tomorrow night, as they gust up to 30mph.

Timing

Snow showers begin to move in around the mid- to late-morning hours tomorrow from the south and west to the north and east.  The main bulk of snow occurs during the afternoon and into the evening.  The snow tapers off overnight during the early Wednesday morning hours.

Snowfall

Finally, snowfall amounts are pretty much a general 6-12” across the state, except extreme Northwestern New Jersey, where they will likely be clipped by the storm but will still receive very measurable snow.  I placed a swath of 8-14”+ snowfall along the I-95 corridor and to the south and east where the heaviest snow and banding is likely to occur.  I added in the ‘+’ because some information is pointing to the possibility of over a foot of snow in some regions of NJ, likely within this area.  One model and its runs are saying, for example, that Northeast Philadelphia Airport could receive up to 20” of snow, so that cannot be completely ignored or ruled out.  Therefore, I believe that there is a chance that this storm really goes ‘BOOM’ over southern and central New Jersey.

My Projected Snowfall Map

Snowstorm to Bring Measurable Snowfall and Arctic Air

This storm has been picked up by the models for several days now, but the exact aspects of the storm have been all over the place, namely snowfall totals and their locations.  There is a high bust potential with this storm because it essentially has not formed yet, so the chance is still there to see lower-than-expected snowfall.  However, one thing that has never really changed has been the bitter cold, Arctic air that will invade the region behind the storm.  The temperatures and wind chills behind the storm may actually end up being the main talking point of this system.   

Source: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/

Most of our area is placed under a Winter Storm Watch by the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly due to the potential for snow accumulations that could impact travel.

How?

Essentially, two pieces of energy, one from the Midwest and one from the south, will phase (or merge) off of the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast and essentially explode into a snowstorm.  What is important for our area is how quickly this merging happens and where it happens.  Due to these factors, we will not see the full brunt of the storm because of this phasing occurring too far away from our area, but we will still see measurable snow. 

Timing

As the systems phase off the coast and a transfer of energy occurs, our area could experience scattered snow/rain showers during the day tomorrow (Thursday).  However, as the storm forms off the coast and strengthens, the dry slot over New Jersey will fill in with snow.  Therefore, the bulk of the snow will begin to fall after sunset and persist overnight, when the heaviest of the snow will fall.  The moderate/heavy snowfall will wane into lighter snow during the morning and clear out by Friday afternoon.

Snowfall Totals

            As I stated before, snowfall amounts have been all over the place up until now, but the models have begun to converge a bit.  Snowfall amounts, with this storm, will depend on a number of factors.  First, it depends how long the slot of dry air before the snowfall lasts…of course, the quicker it fills in, the more snow we receive.  Second, the liquid to snow ratio is another factor, which means that the colder the temperatures are, the more snow that accumulates per amount of liquid.  Third, where exactly does the phasing occur, which means that the closer the two pieces of energy merge, the higher the snowfall intensity that we see.

Temperatures

            Finally, as previously stated, temperatures could become the main talking point out of this system.  Behind the storm, winds out of the north and west will usher in Arctic air.  Tomorrow will see a high in the mid-30’s, then as the storm moves through, temperatures plummet overnight into the mid-teens, which last throughout the day on Friday.  Wind chills overnight and Friday will be near or even below 0°.  Friday night into Saturday will bring a low in the single digits and temperatures in the 20’s throughout the day on Saturday.

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