Potential for Major Winter Storm to End Week

    After a relatively snow-less winter thus far, snow lovers look like they will finally see their first big break of the season as a potentially major winter storm for New Jersey threatens for the end of the week.  The energy that will be the cause of this system is currently moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest and will begin its long, meandering journey across the nation throughout the latter half of the week.  What could potentially result from this nor'easter would be a barrage of snow, winds, coastal flooding, beach erosion, and a spike in bread and milk sales.

Overview
    Essentially, the low pressure system entering the northwest, and its associated energy, will ride over a ridge in the western half of the US.  It will then proceed to then dig toward the south across the Plains and enter the Southeast.  From there, our system will really begin to strengthen and where it heads from that point will determine our storm potential.  We are now now around 72 hours away from go-time, and models will now begin to get a better hold on the system as they can now "see" it better with the energy now moving over land.  Below is a basic overview of the path that the storm will likely take, but its exit along the East Coast will really help to determine our exact weather outcome for Friday/Saturday.

Rough estimated path that the storm take throughout the week with an unknown exit in the east

Where and When?
    Right now, the timing of this system has been fairly consistent with a start during the PM hours on Friday and ending Saturday night, so we're talking upward of a 24-30 hour storm.  However, the real uncertainty, as is in all winter storm forecasting, is narrowing down the exact track.  This is absolutely crucial to determine who sees mixing if at all, where the heaviest snow sets up, where there will be a sharp cutoff in snow totals, etc.  At this time, an exit off the coast between the Delmarva peninsula and the Outer Banks of North Carolina looks to be the best chance at this point.  However, such a large spread is what makes forecasting snow totals so variable at this time frame.

This afternoon;s GFS model run shows the storm for the first half of Saturday (tropicaltidbits.com)

Impacts
    This storm will likely have an impact on communities from North Carolina up through New England and everywhere in between along the I-95 corridor.  The heaviest stripe of heavy snow currently looks to lie in a region from Virginia into Maryland and then through Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Here, we could "POTENTIALLY" see snowfall totals upward of a foot and/or higher (which has been modeled for days now).  High winds will accompany this snowfall as the low strengthens near the region, and we may even have to bring out the "B word" (blizzard) if things line up correctly in some areas.

    Finally, impacts that may not get as much 'glamour' and conversation as snowfall will greatly affect the coastal areas of New Jersey and the rest of the Mid-Atlantic coast.  There, we will likely see long durations of tropical storm force winds of 50+ mph coming ashore.  When you pair this up with a full moon and high tides, we will be looking at major coastal flooding and extensive damage to beaches.  The shore areas will carry that dual threat of water and snow while areas inland prepare for possibly heavy snow accumulations.

    My first call snow map will likely be out tomorrow evening, along with updates and more details about what we may expect to end the week!