Hurricane Hermine amazingly became the first Florida landfalling hurricane in eleven years and is now on its way up the East Coast this weekend. New Jersey has already clouded over today with Hermine's outer cloud bands, and the state will start feeling the first real impacts tomorrow (Saturday). Coastal regions will of course see the biggest efects from Hermine, but depending on its track, inland areas could see a major impact as well. Below is the National Hurricane Center's projected track for Hermine. The blue outline is a Tropical Storm Warning from the Central Jersey Coast through Georgia.
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| Forecasted Track for Hermine from the NHC |
Tomorrow, New Jersey will start experiencing the first effects from Hermine as winds start picking up across the region. We'll see mostly cloudy skies near the Philadelphia metro area while the shore could see its first outer rain bands from the cyclone. Winds will increase throughout the day as scattered areas of rain threaten inland portions of the state. After nightfall, these areas could see winds nearing 30mph+ while the coast sees tropical storm force winds (40-60mph+). Below is a map of probability for tropical storm force winds (39mph+), showing a 50-70% chance across New Jersey.
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| Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds from the NHC |
The worst of Hermine will show itself on Sunday and Monday as the system stalls off the coast due to high pressure to the northeast and slowly backs its way toward the coast in all likelihood. This will lead to dangerous winds working more closely inland. On top of this, coastal communities will potentially experience major coastal flooding, dangerous wave action, and severe beach erosion. If this system tracks closer to the coast, as models are showing, areas closer to Philadelphia would likely experience winds gusting to tropical storm strength and periods of rainfall, heavy at times.
As Tuesday comes around, it looks like Hermine will very slowly move away north and eastward, but breezy/windy conditions will likely remain, especially along the coast. At this time though, there is uncertainty on how long the cyclone persists just off the coast.
Below would be the potential impacts if Hermine moves as modeled:
-Heavy rainfall (more along the coast with 4-6"...upward of 1-2" inland)
-High winds (Tropical Storm force along the coast...upward of 30mph+ inland)
-Severe beach erosion
-Coastal flooding
-Rough and high seas (modeled wave heights as high as 25-30 feet offshore)
-Power Outages
Reminders:
-Regardless if Hermine becomes a "Post Tropical Storm", it will have the same impact as a tropical storm!
-If it tracks even closer to the coast, coastal impacts would be even more devastating, and inland areas would receive more rainfall and higher winds
-If the system shifts eastward away from shore, inland areas will see minimal rainfall and breezy conditions while coastal areas would still see strong impacts
-Weekend plans for the shore should be re-considered if they haven't already
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