Early March Winter Storm (Early Thoughts)

Overview
    Last week's warm-up is already a distant memory as bitter cold temperatures have overtaken our region yet again, and another winter storm is making its way toward our area.  All of the models have been in agreement on this storm for a few days now (a rarity), but the battle between the cold and warm temperatures is making precipitation type forecasting extremely tricky.  My first, general thoughts are that the further south you are, the more rain/mixing you see and vice versa as you head north.  The mixing line looks like it will start toward northern New Jersey and make its way down throughout the storm, with all parts of the state under snowfall by the end of the time period.  Speaking of which, the time frame looks to be Sunday through early Tuesday morning, starting from west to east.

    Below are three maps that summarize my early thoughts on the storm and give some general insights...

Current Infrared Satellite Image

    Above is where the general source of our impending storm currently is, which is just off of the Pacific Coast.  This system will move onshore and bring plenty of rain to the west before bringing its energy across the United States and helping to fuel our winter storm.

My Thoughts on the Set-up

    Here, there are a few things going on that I will explain.  First, a cold front will move out of Canada and push into our region around the red line.  There, it will become stationary and this is where the battle of the warm temperatures from the south and cold temperatures of the north will set up.  The red circle is the area where I believe that the mixing line will have its greatest affect as it moves during the storm.  Finally, a series of low pressure centers will ride along the stationary front, as depicted by the L's on the map.

First Call Snow Map (No Totals Yet)

    Essentially, the map pretty much speaks for itself.  Want the best chance of all snow throughout the storm?  Head north!  Anyway, if things pan out according to current model guidance, be aware that we would be talking around a foot of snow, or more, for the hardest hit areas...but that is only if current model information verifies!  The storm is still off the coast, models will likely change a bit, and things will change, which is the usual with any winter storm.