Saturday, March 15, 2014

Late-Season Snowstorm Set to Clip New Jersey

    Another week and another storm…but this is déjà vu for forecasters, as this closely resembles the same situation that occurred with the storm in early March.  A low pressure system will push from west to east to the south of our region.  However, cold, dry air from the north will flow into our region and set up a sharp gradient between those who see snow and who don't. 

Timing
    Precipitation should enter the region Sunday night and last until Monday afternoon.  After that, scattered flurries/snow showers could linger throughout the Mid-Atlantic.  The further south you are, the more likely it is that you see a longer duration in snowfall.

Snowfall

    The dry air being ushered into our region has the chance to keep all accumulating snow south of Philadelphia.  Therefore, in the snow map that follows, I have first labeled an area, within the dashed lines, as ‘Area of highest uncertainty’.  I believe that the line between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow showers/flurries will setup.  Then, the light blue swath is ‘T-2’, which represents an area where I believe that anything from flurries to 2” of snow may fall.  Finally, the ‘2-5’ swath is where I think the heaviest axis of snow will fall.  Also, warmer surface temperatures will likely affect how much snow actually sticks, but that is one of the challenges with forecasting in March.  In summary, the further south you go the better of a chance you have at accumulating snowfall.


Snowfall Map


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