Tuesday, February 11, 2014

General Overview: First Call Forecast for Mid-Atlantic Nor'easter

                Yet another winter storm is set to strike our region.  A major nor’easter, which has been modeled for several days now and referred to as the “Valentine’s Day Storm” for reference, has its eyes on New Jersey after covering the Southeast in ice and snow tomorrow.  This is my first call forecast for the storm, so it will be very general and just give a brief overview and initial snow map.  Here are the main points:
                The first flurries/snow showers should move in Wednesday evening, with the main portion of the storm entering around midnight.  The storm will roughly last 20-24 hours, so the last flakes should fly on Thursday night.  The rain/snow line, which hasn’t been much of a factor at all this season, will likely come into play for this storm and possibly limit snowfall amounts, especially the closer to the coastline you are.  Also, ice accumulations in portions of NJ could be an additional issue.
                Furthermore, being a nor’easter with strong winds blowing off of the ocean, coastal flooding could be a moderate concern with this winter storm.  Winds inland will likely gust 20-30mph+, and coastal areas could see gusts of 40-50mph+.  Snowfall-wise, it looks like the heaviest axis of snow will set up along the I-95 corridor, and then snow amounts will likely decrease closer to the shore due to the relatively warm, ocean air’s influence.  The less mixing/rain, the higher the snowfall totals will be, so areas closer to the coast do have the potential to have decent accumulations if the rain/snow line doesn’t have a large influence.

                I will have a more detailed forecast and snow map by tomorrow afternoon, so stay tuned!  This was just a general overview.

*Snowfall map may be fine-tuned in a future post as this is just a first call and not my final forecast*


My First Call Snowfall Map


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