Major Mid-Atlantic Snowstorm Incoming

    We're now roughly 48 hours away from go-time in New Jersey with the impending winter storm that has been talked about for days now.  Models have shown remarkable consistency with this storm for several days now, and as its energy begins its descent into the Southeast, they continue to show a major, even possibly historic, Mid-Atlantic nor'easter for the weekend.  The National Weather Service in Baltimore posted Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches earlier all across Maryland and northern Virginia, and the Mount Holly office followed with their own group of Winter Storm Watches for our area.  I wouldn't be surprised if portions of New Jersey saw Blizzard Watches/Warnings as well over the next 48 hours.  Below is a glimpse at what the GFS depicts as our storm on Saturday.

GFS model run depicting general conditions Saturday midday (tropicaltidbits.com)

Overview
    As stated in my post yesterday, energy that worked its way into the Pacific Northwest last night is currently diving south through the Plains states.  The system will then round toward the east as it descends into the Southeast.  Then it move northeast and exits the east coast around the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday night.  During this time, the low pressure system will strengthen, bringing an onslaught of moisture (mainly in the form of snow) and high winds to the Mid-Atlantic, with the bulls-eye looking to set up over Maryland and northern Virginia.

GFS model run showing high winds across coastal and southern NJ Saturday (tropicaltidbits.com)

Impacts and Estimated Timing
    We'll likely start seeing the first flakes fly in New Jersey from south to north after 7pm on Friday evening.  Snow will quickly become heavier overnight and into Saturday afternoon, which is the time period where we likely see the heaviest snowfall rates and even the possibility of thundersnow.  Though I believe areas toward Philadelphia remain all snow for the storm, the mixing line will have to be watched, particularly on Saturday morning.  As the low continues to approach offshore, winds will reach a peak intensity, with inland areas seeing 20-35 mph sustained winds and gusts to 40-50 mph, while coastal areas likely see gusts of strong tropical storm strength (upward of 60+ mph).  It then looks like snow begins to fizzle out late Saturday or early Sunday morning.

    The snowfall with this system is going to be of the wet variety, which is good for snowballs but bad for shoveling.  This, combined with high winds, will cause the risk of power outages, especially for areas closer to the shore where winds will be at a maximum.  The wind and heavy snow combination with this storm is why I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Blizzard Watches/Warnings posted at some point.  Furthermore, for coastal areas, the combination of strong onshore winds, high tides, and a full moon will likely cause major coastal flooding and beach erosion.  This is a part of the storm that has been relatively unmentioned, and some spots are even forecasted to see tides rival, or possibly exceed, those seen during Hurricane Sandy!

First Call Snow Map
    Finally, at this time, the stripe of highest snow amounts looks to run from Southwest Jersey through Central Jersey, where we could see upward of 12-18" of snowfall.  Along the coast in South Jersey, things are more questionable due to the possibility of sleet and rain mixing in, so I left that area lower for now at 6-12" (higher if it remains all snow).  As you approach North Jersey, amounts likely lower as you move away from where the heaviest bands of snow look to set up.  Then, there will likely be a sharp cutoff in heavy snow amounts to lighter accumulations along the Northwest Jersey/New York border.  Below is my first call for this weekend's snowstorm, and I'll post an updated map and blog with any new details tomorrow!

My First Call Snow Map