It took
until March for us to see our first true major winter storm threat, and it’s
looking very likely that it’ll come to fruition. Following a January at 5.5° above average and
a February at 8.5° above average, it started to seem like an early spring was
here to stay, but it looks like Winter 2017 isn’t over yet like the calendar
states.
This is
an early post to just state that a nor’easter is very much possible for late
Monday night into Tuesday, and all counties but Cape May County are currently
under a Winter Storm Watch. Being 48+
hours from the start, the exact track of the system is unknown and variations
of even 50 miles in track can have great consequences on the rain/snow line and
snow totals. If that rain/snow line
comes inland, we could be looking at vast differences in snow totals for areas
just a couple dozen miles apart.
Below
is an image of this afternoon’s GFS model run showing inland snow for Tuesday
at 7am and some mixing issues along the NJ southern coast.
 |
| Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com |
This
post is just meant to put in the back of your mind that there’s potential for a
major snowstorm for early next week and to state the possibilities of what we
could expect. The only real certainties
we’d be looking at would be gusty winds and coastal effects like coastal
flooding and erosion. Wind-wise, we’d
likely be looking at 30+mph gusts inland and 40+mph gusts along the coast.
Our
uncertainties lie, as stated earlier, in the storm track. As of now, the only model guidance that has
an inland and wetter track is the NAM which is used mainly within 36-48 hours
of the event, so it’s still out of its main range of use. Everything else suggests a track further off
the coast which would lead to more or all snow, except for the coast. It’s also uncertain where the heaviest
banding of snow will set up, but it’s likely anywhere from just east of the
I-95 corridor to eastern Pennsylvania.
As for
timing, generally speaking we’re looking at the first flakes likely falling
after nightfall on Monday night and the bulk of precipitation occurring
overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Precipitation would then dwindle in intensity and pull away from southwest
to northeast during the PM hours.
I’ll
have an updated post tomorrow with more details and revised snow map. My current map shows a ‘jackpot’ area in
North Jersey where there should be no threat of mixing and better snow
ratios. The second is a strip along the
I-95 corridor which is likely the biggest unknown of the system with regard to
mixing.
My First Call Snow Map
No comments:
Post a Comment