Overview
The major winter storm that has
been modeled for several days now is coming to fruition and will impact the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast tonight into Friday morning. The center of the storm is currently located
in the Southeast and will track toward the northeast up the Atlantic
coast. Plenty of Atlantic and Gulf moisture
accompanies this storm and plenty of it will fall across our region. Models even up until 12 hours before the
start of the nor’easter’s impacts are all over and causing uncertainty about
the storm’s exact track and snow accumulations.
Regardless, the storm will bring a mixed bag of precipitation in the
form of snow, sleet, rain, and the possibility of even some freezing rain. Furthermore, wind gusts of 30mph+ are likely inland,
while coastal areas could see gusts of 50mph+ and coastal flooding, as the
winds whip off of the Atlantic Ocean.
Timing
Some scattered snow showers
ahead of the storm should be moving in between 9pm and midnight tonight, with
the bulk of the snow impacting the area during the overnight hours. During the day on Thursday, the rain/snow
line will likely push inland, bringing sleet and rain to most, or all, of the
area. Some dry air (called a dry slot)
may move into South Jersey, bringing lighter to no precipitation, before the backside
of the system moves through. As the
backside pushes through, colder air will funnel into the region and accumulating snowfall will likely occur into Thursday night, before the last of
the snow tapers off during the early hours of Friday. Essentially, snow will accumulate overnight
tonight and tomorrow evening, with no definite answer as to what exactly will
fall during the day tomorrow.
How much?
Due to the complexity of the
system, uncertainty is still there with the battle between warm and cold
air. As the day progresses tomorrow, the
rain/snow line will push inland toward Philadelphia and Central NJ. However, the extent of this movement inland
is still unknown, which is why snow total forecasts are still unclear. My best guess is 6-12” along the I-95
corridor and progressively less as you head toward the shore due to more
mixing/rain. Some models have shown a
decent amount of rain/sleet, which is why there is a potential for a busted
snow forecast, but some give upwards of a foot or more, so 12”+ cannot be ruled
out for the area on the map that I labeled “Are of Uncertainty”. For this same reason, I added the ‘+’ at the
end of the 3-6” zone due to the unknown nature of the rain/snow line
tomorrow. Essentially, if the storm
stays mostly snow, upwards of 12”+ is possible but more mixing/rain could lead
to the low end of the forecasted ranges.
If
anything changes, I will post updates and an updated snow map if needed!
My Projected Snowfall Map
Current Radar
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