This storm has been
picked up by the models for several days now, but the exact aspects of the
storm have been all over the place, namely snowfall totals and their locations. There is a high bust potential with this
storm because it essentially has not formed yet, so the chance is still there
to see lower-than-expected snowfall.
However, one thing that has never really changed has been the bitter
cold, Arctic air that will invade the region behind the storm. The temperatures and wind chills behind the
storm may actually end up being the main talking point of this system.
Source: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/
Most of our area is
placed under a Winter Storm Watch by the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly
due to the potential for snow accumulations that could impact travel.
How?
Essentially, two pieces
of energy, one from the Midwest and one from the south, will phase (or merge)
off of the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast and essentially explode into a
snowstorm. What is important for our
area is how quickly this merging happens and where it happens. Due to these factors, we will not see the
full brunt of the storm because of this phasing occurring too far away from our
area, but we will still see measurable snow.
Timing
As the systems phase
off the coast and a transfer of energy occurs, our area could experience
scattered snow/rain showers during the day tomorrow (Thursday). However, as the storm forms off the coast and
strengthens, the dry slot over New Jersey will fill in with snow. Therefore, the bulk of the snow will begin to
fall after sunset and persist overnight, when the heaviest of the snow will
fall. The moderate/heavy snowfall will
wane into lighter snow during the morning and clear out by Friday afternoon.
Snowfall
Totals
As
I stated before, snowfall amounts have been all over the place up until now,
but the models have begun to converge a bit.
Snowfall amounts, with this storm, will depend on a number of
factors. First, it depends how long the
slot of dry air before the snowfall lasts…of course, the quicker it fills in,
the more snow we receive. Second, the
liquid to snow ratio is another factor, which means that the colder the
temperatures are, the more snow that accumulates per amount of liquid. Third, where exactly does the phasing occur,
which means that the closer the two pieces of energy merge, the higher the
snowfall intensity that we see.
Temperatures
Finally,
as previously stated, temperatures could become the main talking point out of
this system. Behind the storm, winds out
of the north and west will usher in Arctic air.
Tomorrow will see a high in the mid-30’s, then as the storm moves
through, temperatures plummet overnight into the mid-teens, which last
throughout the day on Friday. Wind
chills overnight and Friday will be near or even below 0°. Friday night into Saturday will bring a low
in the single digits and temperatures in the 20’s throughout the day on
Saturday.
*As always, please 'like' my 'Cinnaminson Weather' Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/CinnaWx and follow 'Cinnaminson Weather' at https://twitter.com/CinnaWx for further daily updates!*
*As always, please 'like' my 'Cinnaminson Weather' Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/CinnaWx and follow 'Cinnaminson Weather' at https://twitter.com/CinnaWx for further daily updates!*
No comments:
Post a Comment