*Ice storms are very sensitive to temperature, so predicting
exactly where sees how much ice/snow can be difficult. Therefore, it’s not going to be completely known
what will really happen until the storm is moving in.*
Overview
This is round 2 for
winter storms this week, with a possible round 3 coming over the weekend. However, tonight’s winter storm looks like it
will be a nasty one right now, as most of New Jersey will see almost every type
of precipitation possible: snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. A low pressure system chugging across the US
will move through our area bringing plenty of liquid with it.
Snow in the beginning of the storm
will changeover to sleet/freezing rain as warm air runs over the cold air near
the surface. As the precipitation falls,
it will fall as liquid and encounter the below-freezing air close to the
surface which will cause that liquid to re-freeze producing sleet or freezing
rain, depending on how ‘deep’ the cold layer is (P.S. Hail and sleet are not
the same thing!). Then, as sunrise
comes, the cold layer near the surface will disappear, causing the liquid to
fall to the surface without freezing.
This is the rain that will fall during the morning before the storm
ends.
Timing
Snow/sleet/rain will enter the area
between 10pm and 2am tonight from the southwest to northeast. As usual, the farther south you are, the
higher the chance of seeing less frozen precipitation and seeing more rain. The mixing line will push north throughout
the night and all of South Jersey will likely be rain by 6-8am. The precipitation should taper off during the afternoon.
Totals
Snowfall totals will increase the
farther north you go. The southern and Atlantic coast will likely see no snow/sleet accumulations and
slowly increase as you move northward.
Northern South Jersey (if that makes sense to you) will likely see the
best chance for any accumulating snow before the changeover. Sleet/freezing rain will fall overnight and
all of South Jersey should be rain by the morning rush hour.
Projected Snow/Ice Map
Current National Radar
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