Friday, February 28, 2014

First Call Snow Map for 3/2-3/4 Winter Storm

First Call Snow Map
*This map is a representation of my first thoughts on totals and is subject to change*

    Essentially, with the storm still being a few days away, it is hard to put too much into this map.  There are still uncertainties about the exact track and of how much mixing will occur, where it would occur, and how much that mixing line would move.  Therefore, it looks like temperatures will be an issue for the immediate southern NJ coast, which is why I placed them at 2-4" because this area will likely just end as snow after rain/mixing.  The rest of the state is really up for grabs.  

4-8+" Range
  This area captures around 75% of South Jersey.  I'll start off by saying that this area's snowfall will be very dependent on the mixing line, which is why I added the '+' in there.  Simply put, the less mixing, the bigger the totals.  The latest model runs have brought colder temperatures and more snowfall to this area, but we'll see if future model runs continue to run with this output.

6-12+" Range
   This range encompasses around 70% of the state and has that pesky '+' sign on the end of it.  It pretty much extends from southern Philadelphia and northward.  As of now, it appears that this is the area where the precipitation will likely stay mostly or all snow, especially the further north that you go.  I believe that, based on the information available, that localized areas in this range could see 12"+.  This will depend on where heavy banding occurs.

    Anyway, these are my first thoughts on actual snowfall totals, and the map is very subject to change and likely will by tomorrow night/Sunday morning when I can likely narrow down the snowfall estimates a bit.

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