Initial Thoughts on 3/6-3/7 Snowstorm

   This week's storm will be another that disappoints snow-lovers and will delight those that loathe the snow. For several days now, the best model, the EURO, has kept Wednesday/Thursday's snowstorm south of us into northern North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland.  Another factor that keeps the disappointment for snow-lovers coming is the approaching spring.  This means that we are in March...the sun angle is changing, cold air is becoming less available, and ground temperatures are gradually warming up, especially thanks to the past week or two.  Regardless, the NAM, a short-range weather model, is now in play and also keeps a lot of the moisture to the south of New Jersey.

   

   The timetable for this storm is that rain should begin by Wednesday afternoon, turn to a wet, heavy snow at night, and end on Thursday as some lingering rain and snow showers.  We're on the outer fringes of the storm, leaving precipitation with this storm in New Jersey and Philadelphia at a premium.  The surface temperatures for us will be in the 30's and 40's, leaving us on the ugly, rainy side of the rain/snow line for much of this storm, which has been the case for most of the snow events this winter.  

   

   Snow amounts will be at a minimal with this storm due to the rain and warm ground temperatures.  The immediate NJ coastline will see temperatures too warm to support much in the way of snow accumulations, while the farther south you go in Jersey, the more of a chance you have at any accumulation.  My early thoughts would be a general coating to a few inches of snow for South Jersey and Philly, if there is accumulation at all.  However, the American GFS model does have us receiving more snow than the other models, so the potential is still there for some higher accumulations.  Disregarding precipitation, it will be windy, no matter what, as the low intensifies on its approach to the Atlantic coast: winds at 20-25mph, potentially gusting to 30+mph with higher winds along the coast.

This is the NAM's latest accumulated snow map(12Z) from today that shows accumulated snow through Thursday morning.  I agree with this map, as of now, as it gives most of our area an inch or two, at most.

Credit: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE072.gif