Tuesday, March 19, 2013

5-Day Forecast and Storm Threat Outlook

   Here is my forecast for the next five days that will take us to the end of my, and a lot of others', spring break...
Tuesday: lingering showers in the morning give way to sun and clouds in the afternoon, windy; highs around 50°
Wednesday: sunny; highs in the mid-40's
Thursday: chance of flurries and snow showers in the early morning, then partly cloudy; highs around 40°
Friday: partly cloudy; highs in the lower-40's
Saturday: partly cloudy; highs in the mid-40's

Outlook
   Spring arrives on March 20th with the vernal equinox, which is only one of two times a year where the sun is directly over the equator.  In Philadelphia, and the rest of the region, day is now longer than night, and the time of sunset is pushed back later everyday from here on out into June, which I love!  However, after looking at the models, it doesn't seem like spring-like temperatures will be arriving within the next two weeks.  Unfortunately, there is no tell-tale sign of higher temperatures, a ridge in the pressure heights map, on the horizon, and it seems like temperatures will not make it past the lower 50's within the next 10 days.

   Furthermore, looking down the road, I see two storm threats within the next couple of weeks: one on my birthday, March 25th, and the other on April 2nd.  The one for March 25th would be a cold, rainstorm as it looks now, if it hits us...maybe if it was a few moths ago, I'd be more enthusiastic for snow, but it's just too warm now, especially on ground surfaces for much in the way of snow to fall and accumulate.  The GFS gives our area a direct hit, but the EURO takes the storm a couple hundred miles south along the Virginia/North Carolina border.  We'll have to see which model caves in to the other, and it is usually the EURO that wins out.  

   Also, the latest EURO run stops just short of modeling the April 2nd storm, but it definitely shows a coastal storm developing.  The GFS models the storm as giving our area a good dousing of rain, but it, of course, is very far out at 14 days, so I'll just keep an eye on it.  

   Anyway, enjoy the next several sunny days, and hopefully higher temperatures begin to show up sooner than later!


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