First Guess at Snowfall Totals (3/6-3/7 Storm)

   This is an extremely complicated system that is even stumping the hardiest of meteorologists.  Everything about it is complex: what the exact track will actually be, the location of the rain/snow line, the amount of snowfall that will actually stick due to the ground temperatures and rain, and where heavy snow bands will set up.  Of course, some of these are problems in most winter storms.  Therefore, it may take until tonight to come up with a final call that I will feel confident in. 

   Regardless, there has been a major change to this storm.  The NAM and GFS both give our area a hit for snowfall.  The 0Z EURO model run from last night still keeps the main bulk of precipitation to the south but did take a step to the north, though.  However, I’m going to go with the short-range model, NAM, and the GFS and say that New Jersey and Philly will see some decent snowfall.

   As of now, I believe that rain/mix will begin on Wednesday in the early afternoon, with scattered showers possibly starting earlier. This will then turn over completely to a heavy, wet snow around nightfall and last into Thursday morning.  The NJ coastline should expect more in the way of rain with some snow due to the onshore flow of warmer, marine air from the winds that will flow westward around the low. 

Here is what the 12Z NAM run says for snowfall totals in our area...

Credit: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE048.gif

   

   Snowfall accumulations are very difficult to pinpoint with this storm at this point.  Due to the air temperature hovering around freezing, the snow will be a very heavy and wet snow that accumulates slower than the fluffy, powdery snow that falls in colder temperatures.  Coastlines shouldn’t see much of an accumulation, maybe an inch or two at most.  Interior NJ and Philly should see a widespread area of 3-6 inches, but depending on the exact track and heavy snow banding, I believe that 6+” totals could occur in random pockets of interior NJ.  I think that the best chances for higher snow accumulations in the South Jersey/Philly area will be southwestern New Jersey. 

Here is my first guess at what tomorrow's storm should bring us in terms of snowfall totals...

   

   Due to the great uncertainty surrounding this storm, my snowfall map may change later today as more information becomes available.