Sunday: partly cloudy with rain/snow showers late; highs in the upper-40's
Monday: rain/snow, windy; highs in the mid to upper-30's
Tuesday: storm clears out, turning to sun and clouds; highs in the mid-40's
Wednesday: partly cloudy; highs in the upper-40's
Thursday: partly cloudy; highs around 50°
Snowstorm Threat
Well, the GFS was right from my post several days ago...as of right now, all the main models agree on our area receiving at least a light snowfall event. A low from the Midwest and one from the east coast will move through the area and phase, or merge, off the coast and intensify. The timing for this would be an arrival late on Sunday night and an exit late Monday into Tuesday morning. Late Sunday night will bring snow and rain showers, which will persist into Monday when it will turn to snow with snow showers tapering off west to east late Monday or early Tuesday morning. With temperatures being so close to freezing and above, rain and sleet could mix in or change over throughout the day.
As with any wintry event in March, there is great uncertainty and skepticism with snowfall, and this storm is no different, as temperatures are warmer at the surface and chances for a bust in snowfall are higher than in the winter. Most accumulation would be on grassy surfaces with temperatures on paved surfaces being too high to support much in the way of snow accumulation. There is also the possibility of this storm throwing snow bands back into the area after it is supposed to exit, just as the last storm in early-March did and gave NJ a decent amount of unexpected snow, just as a heads up.
The coast will probably not see much of accumulating snow due to temperatures being too high with an onshore flow and rain/mixing, keeping any accumulation minimal, most likely. The further west you go in South Jersey, the best chances for higher accumulations. Models give the Philadelphia/South Jersey area around one inch of precipitation, but it is almost impossible to predict how much of that will attribute to accumulated snowfall until the storm is in progress, depending on ground temperatures, how much snow melts away on impact, and how much snow actually falls during the storm.
Finally, for snow totals, most sources mainly give a couple inches to our area, but the possibility of no accumulation is, of course, there this late in March. The GFS and EURO each give our area a couple inches of snow. The NAM hammers us with a major snowstorm and gives us up to a foot of snow, but that is wishful thinking. Right now, I believe that non-coastal New Jersey and Philadelphia will see accumulating snow but just some small accumulations. I'll post a few snow total forecasts, then give my map...
NAM
Credit: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html
GFS
Credit: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html
My Snow Map
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