Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Early Spring Break Outlook and 5-Day Forecast

Spring Break Outlook
   With spring break at Rutgers (March 16-24), and many other schools, starting in a couple days, I wanted to post an outlook for what the weather will be like for our days at home.  Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like spring break will exactly have spring-like temperatures, but it looks like it will have spring-like precipitation for our area.  For the outlook, I used a combination of the GFS and EURO, with a bias toward the EURO, of course, since it is the best weather model, but the GFS goes out further.  For reference, the average highs, for mid-March in Philadelphia, are in the lower-50's, and March is Philadelphia's second-wettest month, according to weather.com.

Saturday: showers, about a tenth of an inch of rain; highs in the upper-40's
Sunday: cloudy with some sun; rain and snow showers at night, highs in the lower-40's
Monday: rain, up to an inch of rains; highs in the mid-40's
Tuesday: system exits, showers in the morning; highs in the upper-40's
Wednesday: clouds and sun; highs in the lower 40's
Thursday: showers moving in toward the night; highs in the mid-40's
Friday: rain; highs in the 50's
Saturday: rain; highs in the upper-50's
Sunday: wet weather clears out; highs in the 40's

   About the system on Tuesday...a few days ago, the euro was modeling it as a major snowstorm for our area and the rest of the northeast.  That is no longer true.  The possibility is not completely gone, but a bunch of factors work against  a high-accumulation snowstorm in March due to the high sun angle and warmer ground surfaces.  Furthermore, the GFS never jumped on-board with the euro for a snowstorm, and the euro has now modeled a mainly rainstorm for the past few runs, now.  It is still around a week away, so anything can still happen, though.  As of now, it looks like a lot of rain for Monday/Tuesday.    

5-Day Forecast
Thursday: partly cloudy, windy; highs around 40
Friday: mostly cloudy; highs in the mid-40's
Saturday: showers, around a tenth of an inch of rain; highs in the upper 40's
Sunday: clouds with some sun, giving way to snow and rain showers toward nightfall; highs in the lower-40's
Monday: rain, up to an inch; highs in the mid-40's

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