Drought Relief With a Rainy Week Ahead

    Dry dry dry...New Jersey has actually been in the midst of a minor drought, with much of the state in the lowest category of "Abnormally Dry" and parts of Northeast New Jersey in a "Moderate Drought", which can be seen in the image below from the "United States Drought Monitor" website.  However, it appears that this is going to take a drastic turn this week as we keep an eye on multiple threats for rain this week.  We'll see the possibility of a whole package of weather for the upcoming week, with rain, cooler temperatures, windy conditions, flooding, and coastal beach erosion all affecting New Jersey by the end of the weekend.

Northeast Drought Conditions as of 9/22/15 (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast)

    Tomorrow, a low pressure system will approach from the southwest as a cold front moves toward the area, with our last day of warmth (around 80°) and high humidity before it drops off on Wednesday.  The low pressure center will ride along the frontal boundary and begin to being showers after nightfall, though an isolated shower couldn't be ruled out during the day.  The boundary will then stall near our area as it passes through on Wednesday, and periods of showers and moderate to heavy rain will likely fall throughout the overnight hours into the daytime hours.  Depending on exactly how strong this low is and where it sets up, we could be looking at up to 1-2" inches of rainfall through Wednesday night, with areas of higher amounts across the region (especially into Northwest NJ and Central PA).  Below is an image of forecasted rainfall totals through 8pm on Wednesday.

Weather Prediction Center Forecasted Rainfall Amounts Through 8pm Wednesday

    Though the front stalls near our area, we'll be on the cooler side behind it, with temperatures falling into the low- to mid-60's for highs to end the week, with winds beginning to whip up out of the northeast.  A strong high to our north, and developing low pressure to the south, will create a strong pressure gradient to produce 10-25mph sustained winds (higher gusts) off the ocean Thursday and through the weekend (strongest winds along the coast).  This will be a cause for concern along the coast, as strong beach erosion and coastal flooding will likely occur.

   Also, this stalled front will allow for continuous areas of showers to affect the region on Thursday into Friday, with mostly cloudy conditions continuing.   Friday/Saturday will become interesting as the week wraps up, as we watch the track of what will likely become Tropical Storm Joaquin (currently Tropical Depression Eleven).  The National Hurricane Center currently has it forecasted to be off the coast of New Jersey on Saturday (image below), allowing for windy and wet weather to persist into the weekend.  Right now, it looks like a trough over the eastern US and a high to the east will allow for the system to ride along or even make landfall in the Northeast, but a lot can happen between now and then.  Though, by the end of this weekend, some places could be looking at rainfall totals of several inches or more. 

    By the start of next week, it looks like high pressure will provide a rebound to more settled and beautiful weather!

The National Hurricane Center's Current Track for Tropical Depression Eleven

Rain and Storms for Thursday

    Summer still has two weeks left, and our recent weather is certainly proving that.  We're coming out of an August that provided for plenty of sun, heat, and humidity with little relief in the way of rainfall.  Consequently, we have had two heat waves in less than two weeks entering September!  The Philadelphia metro area was bone-dry, with less than an inch of precipitation for the whole month of August, 0.98" to be exact.  However, the region will likely see that total and more just within the next 48 hours as a cold front moves through, along with a low pressure system riding along that boundary.

    As the front approaches tonight, a line of widespread showers and storms will begin to affect the area after midnight.  Our current instability in the atmosphere will allow for thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain to occur throughout the overnight hours and during our Thursday.  This will result in a long-lived soaking of the state, which is currently in the beginning stage of a drought, in the category of "Abnormally Dry".  The instability drops off by tomorrow evening, leaving us with periods of just showers and heavier rain, without the storm threat.  Below is a modeled look at radar for tomorrow at 6pm from the afternoon 4km NAM run.

18Z 4km NAM model run (9/9/15)...courtesy of the PSU E-Wall

    Humidity will stay with us tomorrow, but the temperature will plummet compared with the past few days, with a high in the lower-80's.  Along with this drop in temperatures, periods of heavy rain and storms will fall throughout the day and into the evening.  As nightfall approaches, rainfall will likely become less numerous and widespread, with the threat of rain gradually dropping throughout the overnight hours.

    By early Friday morning, we'll just be dealing with the chance of some lingering showers of the scattered variety, as clearing occurs and we see a mix of sun and clouds for the day.  The heat and humidity will be gone, lasting throughout the weekend and into next week.  Regardless, we should be completely dry by the afternoon on Friday but not before the region sees much-needed rainfall.  Total-wise, most will see upward of 1-2"+ of rain, with some locations receiving more under repeated heavy banding of downpours and storms.  Below is modeled precipitation totals from this afternoon's NAM model run for the Northeast through Friday afternoon, with many seeing up to and over 1" and some places seeing 2"+.

18Z NAM model run for precipitation totals through Friday afternoon...courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

 

 

Heat and Humidity Return This Week

    Lately it's almost felt like summer was winding down and fall was right around the corner, as highs dropped to around 80° and into the low- to mid-80's with uncomfortable humidity almost nowhere to be found.  However, that's all changing starting today and for the week ahead as true summer-like conditions ramp back up and soupy air make a return.  Heat is already here to stay, and humid conditions will be on a gradual rise through the beginning of the week, culminating in the threat for scattered showers and storms for the latter half of the week.

   As I said before, high temperatures have already set into the region, but dew points will certainly be on the rise for tomorrow through Tuesday, as shown in the model data below.  We'll continue to see mostly sunny skies dominate the landscape due to a high pressure system over our area.  However, as it slides offshore, flow will come out of the southwest providing for an increase in moisture and retention of heat, so this is where the humidity increase will come from.  Generally speaking, 60-65° starts to feel sticky (tomorrow), 65-69° is uncomfortable (Monday), and 70°+ is oppressive (Tuesday), so we'll be going through all of these stages over the next few days (with highs in the 90's).

GFS MOS Data with dew points highlighted in a red box

    So when will we see rain again?  A June that was 5.65" above normal in rainfall (in Philadelphia) quelled drought concerns, but a below-average July in precipitation has made it seem pretty dry recently (almost in the lowest drought category per The National Drought Mitigation Center).  However, it appears that we could see a showery and stormy end to the week due to an approaching cold front.  Tuesday and Wednesday will see the slight threat for an isolated shower or storm, but those days will more likely than not remain dry, with partly sunny conditions.  This does not quite look to be the case for Thursday and Friday though.

   A low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest region on Thursday, and its associated cold front will affect our region to end the work week.  The period from Thursday morning to Friday evening has the highest precipitation threat for the week, with the chance for showers, downpours, and thunderstorms, with breaks of sunshine between.  Below is the GFS model run for this morning displaying Thursday's precipitation to give an idea of the rainfall across the area as the cold front approaches,  As always with being this far out, if this front speeds up, we could be looking at some rain sneaking its way into your Wednesday PM.

12Z GFS model run showing Thursday at 2pm (Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

 

4th of July Weekend Forecast

Rest of Friday
    The rest of the daytime hours will be beautiful, with highs in the 80's and a mix of  clouds and sun.  Clouds will build through the rest of the day, as a low pressure system approaches the west and brings the threat for showers overnight tonight.

Saturday (4th of July!)
    As a low pressure system approaches the area and moves off just to the south, we'll see the threat for showers throughout the day tomorrow.  The best chance for precipitation looks to be during the morning and early afternoon, with chances for rain dwindling as you head into the evening hours.  Highs will likely remain in the upper-70's, with just enough humidity to feel a little uncomfortable but not bad.

This morning's NAM model run showing simulated radar at 11am tomorrow

Sunday
    High pressure builds back in and provides for plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions.  Highs will jump back up into the mid-80's, making for a great end to the holiday weekend!

Tropical Storm Bill's Remnants to Bring Weekend Rain

    Tropical Storm Bill made landfall along Texas' Gulf Coast on Tuesday, June 16th, with winds to 60 mph and heavy rain.  Now, less than a week later, our area will be affected by the rainy remnants of that tropical cyclone.  Bill has certainly left its mark on the areas that it has passed through, bringing several inches of rain to portions of Texas and Oklahoma and severe weather (including tornadoes) to the Midwest.  Below is a radar loop of what Tropical Depression Bill looked like this evening over the Missouri/Illinois/Kentucky border area.

Tropical Depression Bill Radar Loop (Gif courtesy of RadarScope)

    So how will these tropical remnants affect our Father's Day Weekend in southern New Jersey?  Well, an unstable atmosphere will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to spark up across the region on Saturday during the daytime hours.  However, this is not the main concern.  Bill's area of low pressure will approach and push through Philadelphia and South Jersey late Saturday night and into Sunday morning.  The heaviest of the rainfall and storms look like they will fall after midnight and last into Sunday morning (likely out by 9am-12pm).  The image below shows this afternoon's NAM model run of the simulated radar at 8am on Sunday morning, showing heavy precipitation over the area.

18Z NAM model run's for Sunday morning at 8am (Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

    The whole region is under a Flood Watch due to the potential for a long duration of heavy rainfall over a short amount of time.  Generally-speaking, it looks like we will be looking at upward of 1-3" of rain through overnight hours of Saturday/Sunday and Sunday morning.  Though, isolated locations could see 3"+ of rainfall, as the low pressure center brings a ball of very heavy precipitation into Southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The image below shows a swath of heavy rainfall totals through Sunday evening from Kentucky to South Jersey.

Modeled precipitation totals through 8pm on Sunday evening (Image courtesy of the WPC)

    Finally, it does appear that when the rainfall ends Sunday morning, dry air will quickly pull in behind it to begin to dry things out.  Sunshine will likely make a return for the afternoon and evening (partly cloudy skies), but there will be the threat for scattered PM showers and storms as a low moves off to the north and a front moves through the area.

Rain and Storms Possible Through Tuesday Night

  It's looking like a rainy/stormy week ahead, with the threat of rain and storms possible each day.  This threat will especially be there for the next few days through Tuesday night (and again to end the week due to a tropical disturbance currently in the Gulf of Mexico).  Anyway, hot temperatures, humid air, and the chance for rain and storms (some have the chance of being severe) will be interspersed with periods more clouds than sun.  This weather is thanks to the set-up that will feature a warm front over the region through Tuesday evening, when a cold front will push through.

Today
  We'll see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the mid- to upper-80's.  Humidity levels won't be as bad as they will be in the coming days, and it'll be mainly dry throughout the afternoon and early evening.  Toward 7pm and later, we'll be looking at the threat for showers and storms, with periods of rain possible, especially after nightfall and overnight.  The severe threat won't really be there as much as tomorrow and Tuesday though.  The image below shows this morning's NAM model run simulating the radar for tonight at 11pm depicting moderate to heavy rain and storms over the area.

Above: This morning's NAM model run depicting the radar at 11pm tonight (Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

Tomorrow and Tuesday
  This will be the time period to really be on the lookout for thunderstorms and severe weather, as the atmosphere will have more instability.  Tomorrow will feature the chance for rain and storms throughout the day, and some storms could be severe, with the main threats being heavy rain and gusty winds.  Otherwise, dry periods will be under mostly cloudy skies, with highs around 90° and heat indices into the mid- to upper-90's (oppressive humidity).

  Tuesday will see much of the same, except with the threat beginning toward mid-day.  Though severe storms are more likely on Monday, the chance for them will remain for Tuesday, with periods of heavy rain and gusty winds being of main concern.  Highs will be 85-90°, with very oppressive humidity.  The cold front then pushes through during the evening.

Overview
  In general, it looks like most areas will be looking at upward of around 1" of rain through Tuesday; however, isolated areas could be looking at more under repeated downpours and storms, which is the norm during the spring and summer months.  The image below shows modeled rainfall totals through Wednesday at 8am and depicts upward of 1-3" across the area during that time frame.  Finally, threats for rainfall and storms will continue throughout the rest of the week, especially as moisture from what could be Tropical Storm Bill has the chance to affect the area toward the end of the work week.  However, tomorrow and Tuesday remain the best chances for severe thunderstorms.

Above: Modeled rainfall totals between today at 8am and Wednesday at 8am (Courtesy of NOAA)

Arthur Starting Off the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season This Week?

  The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1st, but it has taken nearly a month for the first threat of a tropical system to really turn heads.  This week, we could be looking at our first named storm, which would be Arthur.  At this time, a cluster of showers and storms are meandering off the of the eastern coast of Southern Florida, associated with a weak low pressure center.  This system is slowly moving to the southwest at 5 mph but is likely to head northward over the coming days.

  Models are currently sticking to roughly the same trend, track-wise: bringing the system north-northwestward, hugging the coast.  The system then would make a possible landfall in North Carolina before tracking out to sea again and coming within a couple hundred miles off the coast of New Jersey.  Speaking about intensity, the system will be moving along the coast ahead of a trough, which is favorable for upward vertical motion of air and strengthening.  As of now, it appears that this system could become at least Tropical Storm Arthur before completely moving out to sea.

What does this mean for New Jersey?

  The combination of cold frontal boundaries passing through this week and a tropical system moving off the coast from the south will lead to a variety of wet and possibly severe weather.  First, as the cold front approaches from the west, we could be looking at the possibility of showers and storms, some of which could be severe, for Wednesday through Friday (slight chance for Tuesday).  Furthermore, the tropical system will add tropical moisture from the south to our area.  As it moves off the New Jersey Coast, though it will not make landfall, the possibility for strong wave activity, rip currents, and strong winds (especially along the immediate coast) is possible.  The possibility is there for this tropical system to cause issues from beach-goers for the Fourth of July and early parts of the weekend.

Below: Currently the most likely track for the tropical system

Last Arthur in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin

2008

Tropical Storm Arthur

Max Winds: 45mph, Minimum Pressure: 1004mb

Made landfall in Mexico