Updated Snow Map for March 16-17, 2014

I have updated my snow map to account for the likely shift in heavier precipitation toward the north.

Updated Snow Map

Late-Season Snowstorm Set to Clip New Jersey

    Another week and another storm…but this is déjà vu for forecasters, as this closely resembles the same situation that occurred with the storm in early March.  A low pressure system will push from west to east to the south of our region.  However, cold, dry air from the north will flow into our region and set up a sharp gradient between those who see snow and who don't. 

Timing

    Precipitation should enter the region Sunday night and last until Monday afternoon.  After that, scattered flurries/snow showers could linger throughout the Mid-Atlantic.  The further south you are, the more likely it is that you see a longer duration in snowfall.

Snowfall

    The dry air being ushered into our region has the chance to keep all accumulating snow south of Philadelphia.  Therefore, in the snow map that follows, I have first labeled an area, within the dashed lines, as ‘Area of highest uncertainty’.  I believe that the line between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow showers/flurries will setup.  Then, the light blue swath is ‘T-2’, which represents an area where I believe that anything from flurries to 2” of snow may fall.  Finally, the ‘2-5’ swath is where I think the heaviest axis of snow will fall.  Also, warmer surface temperatures will likely affect how much snow actually sticks, but that is one of the challenges with forecasting in March.  In summary, the further south you go the better of a chance you have at accumulating snowfall.

Snowfall Map

Final Call for March 2nd/3rd Snowstorm

Overview

    Well, this storm has been extremely frustrating to forecast, and it looks like this will be the reversal of what we usually see in a Northeast/Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.  We’ll actually see snow totals increase as you head south, with the bulls-eye area ranging from Maryland into South Jersey.  Just 48-72 hours ago, the models agreed on a big snowfall over North/Central Jersey, but that has shifted well south, and that is why we have the predicted snow totals that we have today.

    

    Anyway, this storm is essentially moving from west to east, and a relatively narrow band of heavier snow will move through the region.  This band has been heavily influenced by the polar vortex over Canada, which has suppressed the biggest snowfall estimates to the south.  Therefore, we’ll likely see a sharp cutoff toward Central/North Jersey where areas see up to a half of a foot of snow and others see almost nothing.  Any change in storm track, no matter how small, from what is expected will alter snowfall totals.  In summary, the further north that you go, the less snow that you will see.  Behind this system, expect very cold temperatures, which has been the other story of this winter along with the high seasonal snowfall.

Timing

    The duration of this storm has greatly decreased for New Jersey, at least.  Scattered rain/snow showers this afternoon will move across the region, then the main bulk of the snow moves in this evening.  Snow will continue throughout the night and into the morning and begin to end from northwest to southeast.  The last of the snowfall will likely taper off by the afternoon hours of Monday.

Final Call Snowfall Map