Quick-Moving Storm Set to Hit New Jersey on Monday

Overview

Yet another snowstorm is on its way, as the active winter season continues for southern NJ.  For several days now, this storm has been modeled, but the exact track has been up in the air until the last day or two.  The low pressure center will move just to our south and quickly move out to sea.  Now unlike previous storms, we will not have the bitter cold temperatures and high winds causing low wind chills and high liquid-to-snow ratios.  Therefore, the snow associated with this system will be heavy and wet and will not accumulate as well as a more fluffy snow in colder air (better for snowballs, though!). 

Furthermore, we’ll have that pesky rain/snow line set up in southern NJ, which will be a factor for how much snow South Jersey sees.  It appears as if the rain/snow line will set up near Philadelphia and move southward throughout the storm.  Also, low winds will be another feature to this storm that is different than past storms this winter.  Even along the coast, wind gusts are only expected to reach 20-25mph.  Finally, this storm does have the potential to bust if the area sees rain longer than expected, which increases in potential as you head further south.

Temperatures

Near Freezing, low- to mid-30’s, with wind chills in the 20’s (relatively ‘warm’ compared to the rest of this winter)

Timing

Precipitation begins to enter the area in the early AM hours of Monday (1-4 AM), with the rain/snow line setting up near Philadelphia (Most, if not all, of southern NJ will likely begin as light rain).  The rain/snow line will quickly begin its southerly push by sunrise.  The heaviest of the snow should fall during the morning through the early afternoon.  Finally, the snow will taper off by the evening.   

Snowfall

Highest amounts will likely accumulate within a swath from Philadelphia to Raritan Bay.  Areas southward will likely accumulate less due to mixing with sleet and rain and areas of North Jersey should be cut off from the heavier snow.  Unfortunately, for snow lovers at least, I don’t see much of a ‘BOOM’ factor like past storms because the storm will just be too quick-moving.  

My Projected Snowfall Map

Another January Snowstorm With Bitter Cold Temperatures

Unfortunately, this snowstorm was a ‘surprise’ for many, despite the best model (EURO) having it within its cross-hairs since Wednesday.  Regardless, this storm will be similar to the earlier January snowstorm with up to a foot of snow and very cold temperatures expected.  This storm will bring bitter cold temperatures, negative wind chills, plenty of snow, and some gusty winds.

Temperatures and Wind

First, tomorrow will see plummeting temperatures as they near 20° throughout the day, then drop to around 10° overnight, with wind chills below 0° or even approaching -10°.  Temperatures for Wednesday will remain in the teens will not make it above 30° until Saturday, most likely.  Furthermore, the winds that will be creating these severe wind chills will be occurring tomorrow and into tomorrow night, as they gust up to 30mph.

Timing

Snow showers begin to move in around the mid- to late-morning hours tomorrow from the south and west to the north and east.  The main bulk of snow occurs during the afternoon and into the evening.  The snow tapers off overnight during the early Wednesday morning hours.

Snowfall

Finally, snowfall amounts are pretty much a general 6-12” across the state, except extreme Northwestern New Jersey, where they will likely be clipped by the storm but will still receive very measurable snow.  I placed a swath of 8-14”+ snowfall along the I-95 corridor and to the south and east where the heaviest snow and banding is likely to occur.  I added in the ‘+’ because some information is pointing to the possibility of over a foot of snow in some regions of NJ, likely within this area.  One model and its runs are saying, for example, that Northeast Philadelphia Airport could receive up to 20” of snow, so that cannot be completely ignored or ruled out.  Therefore, I believe that there is a chance that this storm really goes ‘BOOM’ over southern and central New Jersey.

My Projected Snowfall Map

Snowstorm to Bring Measurable Snowfall and Arctic Air

This storm has been picked up by the models for several days now, but the exact aspects of the storm have been all over the place, namely snowfall totals and their locations.  There is a high bust potential with this storm because it essentially has not formed yet, so the chance is still there to see lower-than-expected snowfall.  However, one thing that has never really changed has been the bitter cold, Arctic air that will invade the region behind the storm.  The temperatures and wind chills behind the storm may actually end up being the main talking point of this system.   

Source: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/

Most of our area is placed under a Winter Storm Watch by the National Weather Service in Mt. Holly due to the potential for snow accumulations that could impact travel.

How?

Essentially, two pieces of energy, one from the Midwest and one from the south, will phase (or merge) off of the Mid-Atlantic/New England coast and essentially explode into a snowstorm.  What is important for our area is how quickly this merging happens and where it happens.  Due to these factors, we will not see the full brunt of the storm because of this phasing occurring too far away from our area, but we will still see measurable snow. 

Timing

As the systems phase off the coast and a transfer of energy occurs, our area could experience scattered snow/rain showers during the day tomorrow (Thursday).  However, as the storm forms off the coast and strengthens, the dry slot over New Jersey will fill in with snow.  Therefore, the bulk of the snow will begin to fall after sunset and persist overnight, when the heaviest of the snow will fall.  The moderate/heavy snowfall will wane into lighter snow during the morning and clear out by Friday afternoon.

Snowfall Totals

            As I stated before, snowfall amounts have been all over the place up until now, but the models have begun to converge a bit.  Snowfall amounts, with this storm, will depend on a number of factors.  First, it depends how long the slot of dry air before the snowfall lasts…of course, the quicker it fills in, the more snow we receive.  Second, the liquid to snow ratio is another factor, which means that the colder the temperatures are, the more snow that accumulates per amount of liquid.  Third, where exactly does the phasing occur, which means that the closer the two pieces of energy merge, the higher the snowfall intensity that we see.

Temperatures

            Finally, as previously stated, temperatures could become the main talking point out of this system.  Behind the storm, winds out of the north and west will usher in Arctic air.  Tomorrow will see a high in the mid-30’s, then as the storm moves through, temperatures plummet overnight into the mid-teens, which last throughout the day on Friday.  Wind chills overnight and Friday will be near or even below 0°.  Friday night into Saturday will bring a low in the single digits and temperatures in the 20’s throughout the day on Saturday.

*As always, please 'like' my 'Cinnaminson Weather' Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/CinnaWx and follow 'Cinnaminson Weather' at https://twitter.com/CinnaWx for further daily updates!*

Mild 5-Day Forecast

Monday: Sun and clouds, with highs near 50°
Tuesday: Sun and clouds, with highs near 50°
Wednesday: Sun and clouds, with highs in the mid-50's
Thursday: Cloudy, with a chance of showers and highs in the upper-50's
Friday: Rain, with a high near 50°

Thanksgiving-Eve Storm

Overview

  As most everybody has probably heard by now, we have a strong storm heading up the east coast tomorrow (11/26), and lasting through the day on Wednesday.  Originally, at the beginning of last week, model runs were showing a possible snowstorm.  Unfortunately, as the days went on, that threat went away and a rainstorm is what is left for South Jersey and Philadelphia.

Timing

  Some scattered showers and rain out ahead of the system may start affecting us tomorrow afternoon, but the main bulk of the rain should arrive in the evening, around 5-8PM.  This rain will be heavy and persistent, as it will last into the day on Wednesday.  As the precipitation begins to taper off in the later afternoon/evening, the rain may mix in with some snow or changeover to some light flurries/snow showers toward the end of the storm, as cold air begins to wrap around the low into our area.

How Much?

  Right now, it appears like this system will be a soaker, bringing 2-4 inches of rain to the region, with more possible in localized areas.  Any flurries, if a changeover occurs at all, will almost certainly not accumulate into anything.  The only areas that will experience snow are the Poconos and interior portions of Pennsylvania, well west of Philadelphia.  At the bottom of the post is a QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) map from the National Weather Service, which shows a model forecast for liquid precipitation amounts.

Other Effects

  Of course, the main concern with this storm is the impact that it will have on travel during one of the biggest travel time periods of the year.  Anywhere from the Gulf Coast to Maine will see severe travel problems due to rain, wind, and snow.  Locally, other than rain, we could see wind gusts up to 30mph and some tidal flooding.  Temperatures tomorrow will be one of those abnormal times when temperatures increase throughout the night.  We will see mid-40's during the day, tomorrow, that will increase into the 50's during the night, giving us highs in the mid-50's on Wednesday.  Then, as the storm moves through, cold air will plunge in, bringing highs into the 30's on Thursday and Friday.

11/25 7PM Radar (with added details)

Source: http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&conus=anim&radar=CONUS

QPF Forecast (11/26 0Z-11/29 0Z)

Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

Winter Temperatures Coming: 5-Day Forecast

Thursday: Sun and clouds; highs of around 50°

Friday: Sun and clouds, with showers late; highs in the mid-50's

Saturday: Scattered showers, clearing to sun and clouds; highs in the mid-50's

Sunday: Sun and clouds, with a chance of flurries; highs in the mid-30's

Monday: Sunny; highs in the upper-30's

Chilly 5-Day Forecast

Tuesday: Rain/snow showers and clouds clearing throughout the day, temperatures around 40°
Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the mid-40's
Thursday: Sunny, with highs in the lower-50's
Friday: Sunny, with highs in the mid-50's
Saturday: Sun and clouds, with highs near 60°