Overview
Tomorrow, a weak clipper will dive out of the Upper Midwest and cut through the Great Lakes/Northeast to our north throughout the day. Ahead of it, highs will actually warm decently into the low- to mid-40's, with increasing clouds during the morning and early afternoon. As the energy from this system approaches the areas, we'll see the threat of some rain and snow showers to spark up across the region.
Timing and What?
The chance of precipitation is most likely between 3pm and 11pm Tuesday. The late afternoon before sunset will be the best threat for a rain/snow mix, but as the cold air rushes in around sunset, any precipitation falling likely comes down in the form of a flurry/snow shower or even a heavier squall in some spots. Though pavement accumulation isn't likely due to the 'warmth' during the day (and even a little bit of possible sunshine), unpaved surfaces will cool off much more quickly and give the best chance of any accumulation with the scattered precipitation.
Where and How Much?
The best accumulation threat is the further north and west you go, where the most energy and colder air will be. Therefore, North Jersey holds the best chance of a coating to 1" on all surfaces (even 1"+ in heavier squalls). Then, heading into Central and South Jersey, the showers will be a bit more scattered, leaving a trace to coating threat, with even upward of a few tenths of an inch. Though, the best possibilities of this the further north you are. These accumulations would likely be more confined to grassy and unpaved surfaces due to slightly warmer temperatures. Finally, the extreme southern parts of the state will see the best chance of just a trace of snow, likely not accumulating on average with a better chance of liquid precipitation.
Reminder: A "trace" is anywhere from one flake of snow to less than 0.1"
My 1/12/16 Snow Map
Excellent! Thanks.
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