Drought Relief With a Rainy Week Ahead

    Dry dry dry...New Jersey has actually been in the midst of a minor drought, with much of the state in the lowest category of "Abnormally Dry" and parts of Northeast New Jersey in a "Moderate Drought", which can be seen in the image below from the "United States Drought Monitor" website.  However, it appears that this is going to take a drastic turn this week as we keep an eye on multiple threats for rain this week.  We'll see the possibility of a whole package of weather for the upcoming week, with rain, cooler temperatures, windy conditions, flooding, and coastal beach erosion all affecting New Jersey by the end of the weekend.

Northeast Drought Conditions as of 9/22/15 (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast)

    Tomorrow, a low pressure system will approach from the southwest as a cold front moves toward the area, with our last day of warmth (around 80°) and high humidity before it drops off on Wednesday.  The low pressure center will ride along the frontal boundary and begin to being showers after nightfall, though an isolated shower couldn't be ruled out during the day.  The boundary will then stall near our area as it passes through on Wednesday, and periods of showers and moderate to heavy rain will likely fall throughout the overnight hours into the daytime hours.  Depending on exactly how strong this low is and where it sets up, we could be looking at up to 1-2" inches of rainfall through Wednesday night, with areas of higher amounts across the region (especially into Northwest NJ and Central PA).  Below is an image of forecasted rainfall totals through 8pm on Wednesday.

Weather Prediction Center Forecasted Rainfall Amounts Through 8pm Wednesday

    Though the front stalls near our area, we'll be on the cooler side behind it, with temperatures falling into the low- to mid-60's for highs to end the week, with winds beginning to whip up out of the northeast.  A strong high to our north, and developing low pressure to the south, will create a strong pressure gradient to produce 10-25mph sustained winds (higher gusts) off the ocean Thursday and through the weekend (strongest winds along the coast).  This will be a cause for concern along the coast, as strong beach erosion and coastal flooding will likely occur.

   Also, this stalled front will allow for continuous areas of showers to affect the region on Thursday into Friday, with mostly cloudy conditions continuing.   Friday/Saturday will become interesting as the week wraps up, as we watch the track of what will likely become Tropical Storm Joaquin (currently Tropical Depression Eleven).  The National Hurricane Center currently has it forecasted to be off the coast of New Jersey on Saturday (image below), allowing for windy and wet weather to persist into the weekend.  Right now, it looks like a trough over the eastern US and a high to the east will allow for the system to ride along or even make landfall in the Northeast, but a lot can happen between now and then.  Though, by the end of this weekend, some places could be looking at rainfall totals of several inches or more. 

    By the start of next week, it looks like high pressure will provide a rebound to more settled and beautiful weather!

The National Hurricane Center's Current Track for Tropical Depression Eleven

Rain and Storms for Thursday

    Summer still has two weeks left, and our recent weather is certainly proving that.  We're coming out of an August that provided for plenty of sun, heat, and humidity with little relief in the way of rainfall.  Consequently, we have had two heat waves in less than two weeks entering September!  The Philadelphia metro area was bone-dry, with less than an inch of precipitation for the whole month of August, 0.98" to be exact.  However, the region will likely see that total and more just within the next 48 hours as a cold front moves through, along with a low pressure system riding along that boundary.

    As the front approaches tonight, a line of widespread showers and storms will begin to affect the area after midnight.  Our current instability in the atmosphere will allow for thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain to occur throughout the overnight hours and during our Thursday.  This will result in a long-lived soaking of the state, which is currently in the beginning stage of a drought, in the category of "Abnormally Dry".  The instability drops off by tomorrow evening, leaving us with periods of just showers and heavier rain, without the storm threat.  Below is a modeled look at radar for tomorrow at 6pm from the afternoon 4km NAM run.

18Z 4km NAM model run (9/9/15)...courtesy of the PSU E-Wall

    Humidity will stay with us tomorrow, but the temperature will plummet compared with the past few days, with a high in the lower-80's.  Along with this drop in temperatures, periods of heavy rain and storms will fall throughout the day and into the evening.  As nightfall approaches, rainfall will likely become less numerous and widespread, with the threat of rain gradually dropping throughout the overnight hours.

    By early Friday morning, we'll just be dealing with the chance of some lingering showers of the scattered variety, as clearing occurs and we see a mix of sun and clouds for the day.  The heat and humidity will be gone, lasting throughout the weekend and into next week.  Regardless, we should be completely dry by the afternoon on Friday but not before the region sees much-needed rainfall.  Total-wise, most will see upward of 1-2"+ of rain, with some locations receiving more under repeated heavy banding of downpours and storms.  Below is modeled precipitation totals from this afternoon's NAM model run for the Northeast through Friday afternoon, with many seeing up to and over 1" and some places seeing 2"+.

18Z NAM model run for precipitation totals through Friday afternoon...courtesy of Tropical Tidbits