Effects of Tropical Storm Karen

Current Information (2pm EDT Advisory)
Max Winds: 50mph
Minimum Pressure: 1003mb
Moving NNW at 9mph


Current Forecast Track

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?gm_track#contents

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

The above maps show both the track and the 7-day precipitation forecast from today, October 4th, until October 11th, which encompasses the time in which Tropical Storm Karen's remnants will affect southern New Jersey.  Now, not only will we be dealing with Karen's remnants, but the current winter storm in the northern Plains and Northwestern US will be moving across the nation as the cold front associated with it will move through New Jersey around the same time as the tropical storm's remnants.  Below, I will explain what each of the main models is saying.  Finally, the last section will include what to expect, as of now, with regards to how much rain and any other effects, like winds and wave heights.

GFS
The GFS's latest run from this afternoon currently has Karen moving northward toward Louisiana before hooking to the east, moving along the Gulf Coast, and then making a main landfall in the Florida panhandle.  From there, Karen will then essentially meet up with the cold front, as she becomes extratropical and blends into the front.  All together, this run has the precipitation beginning on Monday night and lasting into Tuesday evening, before clearing out.

EURO
The European model run shows a less intense storm as it makes landfall along the Gulf Coast, with less moisture and higher pressure.  The storm then takes roughly the same trek, as described in the paragraph above, but the timing is a little later and provides less precipitation for our area.  The timing would be early Tuesday morning into Tuesday night.

Summary
All together, we are looking at a decent soaking from the combination of the cold front and remnants of Tropical Storm Karen.  Timing-wise, expect scattered showers to move in on Monday out ahead of the storms, with the main bulk of rain occurring between Monday night and Tuesday afternoon.  The chance of showers should dwindle as the evening/night progresses on Tuesday.  Rainfall amounts, naturally, will vary from location to location, but 1"-3" of rain should be expected at this time, with totals on either side of that range still being possible.  Finallly, though the rain should be the worst of it, sustained wind speeds are forecasted at 14-20mph, with gusts up to 30-35mph, and winds will be faster down the shore as there is no friction coming off the ocean to slow the flow of air.  Then, wave heights are currently forecasted to be in the 4-7 ft. range.  We are still 72-84 hours out, so if anything changes, I will post an update.  If I had to guess how the forecast would change if it did, I would say that the storm, in general, would come in less intense, but time will tell.