Thursday, December 7, 2017

First Snowfall of the Season Saturday

  It may not technically be winter yet (December 21st), but we're in for our first snowfall on Saturday.  Tuesday night's strong cold frontal passage has set us up for an extended stay of wintry, polar air.  This weekend, we'll see highs in the 30's and near 40° under our cold air mass, and this is one ingredient for the upcoming storm.

  Tuesday night's cold front is currently parked off the coast, and it'll act as a track for a low pressure system to ride along on Saturday.  A favorable setup in the upper atmosphere will allow for the evolution of the precipitation to build over our region throughout the day backing its way into eastern Pennsylvania.  The start of the snowfall will work from south to north throughout the morning hours with the southern-most portion of South Jersey being affected prior to sunrise, the Philadelphia metro area during the mid-morning (7-10am), and then North Jersey during the late morning/around noon.

  The snow will continue to fall throughout the day on Saturday at a general light to moderate, steady pace before ending from southwest to northeast during the evening.  Thanks to the majority of the snowfall occurring during the daylight hours and likely not falling at a continuous, heavy pace, treated road surfaces will mainly remain wet and slushy while most accumulation is confined to grassy and untreated surfaces. 

  The image below shows a representation of the widespread snowfall across NJ during the afternoon on Saturday from the NAM model.

Saturday Afternoon Radar from 18z NAM model run on 12/7/17 (Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com)


  Onto my snow map...the immediate coastal, inland area will very likely be the jackpot area with decreasing totals as you move further west and northwest away from the center of the storm.  Immediate areas along the coast could potentially have some mixing issues due to marginal temperatures near the surface which could limit totals (not included on map).


My First Call Snow Map