Winter
Storm Warnings for most of the state have been issued with Blizzard Watches
into Northeast New Jersey and High Wind Watches along the coast. Everything’s coming together for our first
and probably last major winter storm threat of the season where a lot of
places could actually double their current snowfall totals for the whole season. For example, I’ve measured 11.5” for the
winter at my station in Cinnaminson, and I would not be surprised at all if we
approach and/or best that by Tuesday evening.
Models
have been consistently showing this system since the latter half of last week,
and it looks like all the ingredients are coming together for it to come to
fruition. We’ll likely see the full
platter of weather that comes along with a winter nor’easter in the Northeast:
high winds, heavy snow, low visibility, coastal flooding, and beach erosion.
At this
time, the first flakes begin to fly from southwest to northeast between 9pm and
midnight on Monday night and quickly pick up in intensity. We’ll see the heaviest of the snowfall
between midnight and 10am on Tuesday morning.
The precipitation should dwindle in intensity and taper off during the
afternoon hours.
Below
is an image of this afternoon’s Hi-Res NAM model run showing a depiction of
conditions at 8am on Tuesday morning.
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| Image courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com |
Though
it is more likely for the coast and areas within maybe 20-30 miles of the
coast, we could see the rain/snow mixing line approach the I-95 corridor from
Wilmington to Trenton. In areas that
change over to sleet/rain, even briefly, snow totals would only likely hit the
lower end of forecasted ranges along with eating away at snow that has already
fallen. As of now, it looks like it
should stay away from the Philadelphia metro area, but it’s a possibility Tuesday
morning if the storm's center tracks too far west and closer to the coast.
As of
now, the heaviest banding of snow is still questionable in exact location but likely
occurs somewhere between eastern Pennsylvania and just east of the I-95
corridor. During the AM hours overnight
and into Tuesday morning, we could be looking at snow rates upward of 1-3” per
hour which would cause visibilities to drop to a ¼” – ½” mile. A blizzard is officially defined as a time
period of 3 hours or more in which 35mph+ winds cause blowing snow with
visibility of ¼” or less, and we could see that in some parts of the state
during the storm.
Speaking
of winds, we’ll be looking at upward of 40mph wind gusts inland toward the
Philadelphia metro area and gusts to 60mph+ along the coast. That, as stated earlier, would lead to
blowing snow and reduced visibility.
Also, this will be a heavier, wet snow that’ll tend to stick to wires
and tree branches, so high winds could lead to the possibility of downed
branches and power outages. Again, this
threat increases as you get closer to the shore.
Finally,
for the coastal towns, we’ll be looking at moderate flooding with constant,
high onshore winds on Tuesday morning combined with a high tide. This wind and wave action will also lead to
beach erosion as is a trademark of all major nor’easters. High winds and coastal flooding/erosion are
the two effects of this system with the highest confidence.
Below
is my second call snow map. I’ve upped
totals across the board with a jackpot area in North Jersey where heavy banding
and no threat of mixing will have the best chance of occurring.
Then, the I-95 corridor of South/Central Jersey is the secondary jackpot area where we could see
some high totals under heavy banding but any mixing of sleet and rain could do
a number on snow totals if the rain/snow line makes it that far inland. Then, totals decrease as you approach the
shore due to the higher chances of mixing.
My Second Call Snow Map
