Saturday, October 17, 2015

Cinnaminson Day Forecast

    Heading out to Cinnaminson Day on Sunday?  Here's a detailed forecast for the chilly day:

Morning (Through Noon)
    Temperatures early in the morning will be reaching a low in the mid-30's, with some area even approaching the freezing mark.  With high pressure continuing to build in from the west following Friday's cold frontal passage, winds out of the northwest continue to bring colder into the area.  We'll see mostly sunny clouds for the morning hours, with winds beginning to strengthen toward mid-morning (10-15mph).  Temperatures will increase from the mid-30's around sunrise into the 40's by late morning,

Afternoon (Noon-5pm)
    Temperatures will continue to climb to a high of around 50° for the afternoon hours, with clouds increasing to partly sunny skies.  Winds will also be on the increase, with 10-20mph winds and gusts to 30-35mph, which will not help with how chilly it'll feel, even with a good amount of sunshine (it'll feel like the 40's).  Finally, with some upper-level energy passing through the region during the PM hours, there will also be the slightest chance of a shower which can not be ruled out, but it will certainly be mainly dry.

Evening (After 5pm)
    Clouds decrease through sunset as temperatures begin to tumble, as it'll fall back into the 40's by nightfall.  Winds will also fall off through the evening time frame, with mainly clear skies.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Season's First Cold Blast Incoming

    It looks like we'll be in store for this season's first cold air blast this weekend, as winter-like temperatures overtake the Northeast.  A weak and moisture-starved cold front moves through tomorrow, with high pressure building in behind it.  Ahead of the cold front today, we had relatively warm air, with highs in the 60's, helped out by winds out of the west and southwest.  However, winds shift out of the northwest tomorrow, which generally occurs behind cold fronts, and will bring colder air out of Canada.

    This wind out of the northwest will pull down the colder air out of Canada (called cold-air advection) and will bring temperatures in the 50's during the day and 30's at night for the Philadelphia Metro area.  As you can see from the MOS data below, low temperatures will fall into the lower-40's Friday night, but the truly winter-like air will be in store for us on Saturday and Sunday night.  Clear skies and calm winds are the perfect combination for cooling, and we'll probably only see one of those Saturday night, with mainly clear skies and still a little breezy, leading to lows in the mid- to upper-30's.  Breeziness calms a bit more for Sunday night, which will allow for our lows to approach freezing, so watch early Monday morning for the possibility of some frost.  The typically colder areas, especially to our north and northwest will even fall into the 20's during this time!


GFS MOS Data for Mt. Holly, NJ showing lows in the 30's for this weekend!

    During the daytime, we'll see mostly sunny skies Friday through Monday, with highs decreasing throughout the weekend.  Highs Friday will rise back into the 60's but go downhill from there.  Highs only reach the mid-50's Saturday, with breezy conditions, while Sunday and Monday see highs only reaching into the lower-50's and around 50° throughout the area.  Though we'll see dry conditions likely through Monday, higher elevations and areas of Northwest New Jersey through Central Pennsylvania will have the threat of some snow/rain showers on Sunday, with temperatures allowing for that threat.  This can be seen in the image of the GFS model run below, displaying rain/snow showers across parts of the Northeast on Sunday.  If you hate the cold, don't worry, because temperatures look to rebound next week.

This afternoon's GFS model run showing rain/snow showers Sunday for some areas
Image courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com