Models are currently sticking to roughly the same trend, track-wise: bringing the system north-northwestward, hugging the coast. The system then would make a possible landfall in North Carolina before tracking out to sea again and coming within a couple hundred miles off the coast of New Jersey. Speaking about intensity, the system will be moving along the coast ahead of a trough, which is favorable for upward vertical motion of air and strengthening. As of now, it appears that this system could become at least Tropical Storm Arthur before completely moving out to sea.
What does this mean for New Jersey?
The combination of cold frontal boundaries passing through this week and a tropical system moving off the coast from the south will lead to a variety of wet and possibly severe weather. First, as the cold front approaches from the west, we could be looking at the possibility of showers and storms, some of which could be severe, for Wednesday through Friday (slight chance for Tuesday). Furthermore, the tropical system will add tropical moisture from the south to our area. As it moves off the New Jersey Coast, though it will not make landfall, the possibility for strong wave activity, rip currents, and strong winds (especially along the immediate coast) is possible. The possibility is there for this tropical system to cause issues from beach-goers for the Fourth of July and early parts of the weekend.
Below: Currently the most likely track for the tropical system
Last Arthur in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin
2008
Tropical Storm Arthur
Max Winds: 45mph, Minimum Pressure: 1004mb
Made landfall in Mexico
