As most everybody has probably heard by now, we have a strong storm heading up the east coast tomorrow (11/26), and lasting through the day on Wednesday. Originally, at the beginning of last week, model runs were showing a possible snowstorm. Unfortunately, as the days went on, that threat went away and a rainstorm is what is left for South Jersey and Philadelphia.
Timing
Some scattered showers and rain out ahead of the system may start affecting us tomorrow afternoon, but the main bulk of the rain should arrive in the evening, around 5-8PM. This rain will be heavy and persistent, as it will last into the day on Wednesday. As the precipitation begins to taper off in the later afternoon/evening, the rain may mix in with some snow or changeover to some light flurries/snow showers toward the end of the storm, as cold air begins to wrap around the low into our area.
How Much?
Right now, it appears like this system will be a soaker, bringing 2-4 inches of rain to the region, with more possible in localized areas. Any flurries, if a changeover occurs at all, will almost certainly not accumulate into anything. The only areas that will experience snow are the Poconos and interior portions of Pennsylvania, well west of Philadelphia. At the bottom of the post is a QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) map from the National Weather Service, which shows a model forecast for liquid precipitation amounts.
Other Effects
Of course, the main concern with this storm is the impact that it will have on travel during one of the biggest travel time periods of the year. Anywhere from the Gulf Coast to Maine will see severe travel problems due to rain, wind, and snow. Locally, other than rain, we could see wind gusts up to 30mph and some tidal flooding. Temperatures tomorrow will be one of those abnormal times when temperatures increase throughout the night. We will see mid-40's during the day, tomorrow, that will increase into the 50's during the night, giving us highs in the mid-50's on Wednesday. Then, as the storm moves through, cold air will plunge in, bringing highs into the 30's on Thursday and Friday.
11/25 7PM Radar (with added details)
Source: http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&conus=anim&radar=CONUS
QPF Forecast (11/26 0Z-11/29 0Z)
Source: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif
