Arthur Starting Off the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season This Week?

  The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1st, but it has taken nearly a month for the first threat of a tropical system to really turn heads.  This week, we could be looking at our first named storm, which would be Arthur.  At this time, a cluster of showers and storms are meandering off the of the eastern coast of Southern Florida, associated with a weak low pressure center.  This system is slowly moving to the southwest at 5 mph but is likely to head northward over the coming days.

  Models are currently sticking to roughly the same trend, track-wise: bringing the system north-northwestward, hugging the coast.  The system then would make a possible landfall in North Carolina before tracking out to sea again and coming within a couple hundred miles off the coast of New Jersey.  Speaking about intensity, the system will be moving along the coast ahead of a trough, which is favorable for upward vertical motion of air and strengthening.  As of now, it appears that this system could become at least Tropical Storm Arthur before completely moving out to sea.

What does this mean for New Jersey?

  The combination of cold frontal boundaries passing through this week and a tropical system moving off the coast from the south will lead to a variety of wet and possibly severe weather.  First, as the cold front approaches from the west, we could be looking at the possibility of showers and storms, some of which could be severe, for Wednesday through Friday (slight chance for Tuesday).  Furthermore, the tropical system will add tropical moisture from the south to our area.  As it moves off the New Jersey Coast, though it will not make landfall, the possibility for strong wave activity, rip currents, and strong winds (especially along the immediate coast) is possible.  The possibility is there for this tropical system to cause issues from beach-goers for the Fourth of July and early parts of the weekend.

Below: Currently the most likely track for the tropical system

Last Arthur in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin

2008

Tropical Storm Arthur

Max Winds: 45mph, Minimum Pressure: 1004mb

Made landfall in Mexico

  

Updated Snow Map for March 16-17, 2014

I have updated my snow map to account for the likely shift in heavier precipitation toward the north.

Updated Snow Map

Late-Season Snowstorm Set to Clip New Jersey

    Another week and another storm…but this is déjà vu for forecasters, as this closely resembles the same situation that occurred with the storm in early March.  A low pressure system will push from west to east to the south of our region.  However, cold, dry air from the north will flow into our region and set up a sharp gradient between those who see snow and who don't. 

Timing

    Precipitation should enter the region Sunday night and last until Monday afternoon.  After that, scattered flurries/snow showers could linger throughout the Mid-Atlantic.  The further south you are, the more likely it is that you see a longer duration in snowfall.

Snowfall

    The dry air being ushered into our region has the chance to keep all accumulating snow south of Philadelphia.  Therefore, in the snow map that follows, I have first labeled an area, within the dashed lines, as ‘Area of highest uncertainty’.  I believe that the line between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow showers/flurries will setup.  Then, the light blue swath is ‘T-2’, which represents an area where I believe that anything from flurries to 2” of snow may fall.  Finally, the ‘2-5’ swath is where I think the heaviest axis of snow will fall.  Also, warmer surface temperatures will likely affect how much snow actually sticks, but that is one of the challenges with forecasting in March.  In summary, the further south you go the better of a chance you have at accumulating snowfall.

Snowfall Map

Final Call for March 2nd/3rd Snowstorm

Overview

    Well, this storm has been extremely frustrating to forecast, and it looks like this will be the reversal of what we usually see in a Northeast/Mid-Atlantic snowstorm.  We’ll actually see snow totals increase as you head south, with the bulls-eye area ranging from Maryland into South Jersey.  Just 48-72 hours ago, the models agreed on a big snowfall over North/Central Jersey, but that has shifted well south, and that is why we have the predicted snow totals that we have today.

    

    Anyway, this storm is essentially moving from west to east, and a relatively narrow band of heavier snow will move through the region.  This band has been heavily influenced by the polar vortex over Canada, which has suppressed the biggest snowfall estimates to the south.  Therefore, we’ll likely see a sharp cutoff toward Central/North Jersey where areas see up to a half of a foot of snow and others see almost nothing.  Any change in storm track, no matter how small, from what is expected will alter snowfall totals.  In summary, the further north that you go, the less snow that you will see.  Behind this system, expect very cold temperatures, which has been the other story of this winter along with the high seasonal snowfall.

Timing

    The duration of this storm has greatly decreased for New Jersey, at least.  Scattered rain/snow showers this afternoon will move across the region, then the main bulk of the snow moves in this evening.  Snow will continue throughout the night and into the morning and begin to end from northwest to southeast.  The last of the snowfall will likely taper off by the afternoon hours of Monday.

Final Call Snowfall Map

First Call Snow Map for 3/2-3/4 Winter Storm

First Call Snow Map

*This map is a representation of my first thoughts on totals and is subject to change*

    Essentially, with the storm still being a few days away, it is hard to put too much into this map.  There are still uncertainties about the exact track and of how much mixing will occur, where it would occur, and how much that mixing line would move.  Therefore, it looks like temperatures will be an issue for the immediate southern NJ coast, which is why I placed them at 2-4" because this area will likely just end as snow after rain/mixing.  The rest of the state is really up for grabs.  

4-8+" Range

  This area captures around 75% of South Jersey.  I'll start off by saying that this area's snowfall will be very dependent on the mixing line, which is why I added the '+' in there.  Simply put, the less mixing, the bigger the totals.  The latest model runs have brought colder temperatures and more snowfall to this area, but we'll see if future model runs continue to run with this output.

6-12+" Range

   This range encompasses around 70% of the state and has that pesky '+' sign on the end of it.  It pretty much extends from southern Philadelphia and northward.  As of now, it appears that this is the area where the precipitation will likely stay mostly or all snow, especially the further north that you go.  I believe that, based on the information available, that localized areas in this range could see 12"+.  This will depend on where heavy banding occurs.

    Anyway, these are my first thoughts on actual snowfall totals, and the map is very subject to change and likely will by tomorrow night/Sunday morning when I can likely narrow down the snowfall estimates a bit.

Early March Winter Storm (Early Thoughts)

Overview
    Last week's warm-up is already a distant memory as bitter cold temperatures have overtaken our region yet again, and another winter storm is making its way toward our area.  All of the models have been in agreement on this storm for a few days now (a rarity), but the battle between the cold and warm temperatures is making precipitation type forecasting extremely tricky.  My first, general thoughts are that the further south you are, the more rain/mixing you see and vice versa as you head north.  The mixing line looks like it will start toward northern New Jersey and make its way down throughout the storm, with all parts of the state under snowfall by the end of the time period.  Speaking of which, the time frame looks to be Sunday through early Tuesday morning, starting from west to east.

    Below are three maps that summarize my early thoughts on the storm and give some general insights...

Current Infrared Satellite Image

    Above is where the general source of our impending storm currently is, which is just off of the Pacific Coast.  This system will move onshore and bring plenty of rain to the west before bringing its energy across the United States and helping to fuel our winter storm.

My Thoughts on the Set-up

    Here, there are a few things going on that I will explain.  First, a cold front will move out of Canada and push into our region around the red line.  There, it will become stationary and this is where the battle of the warm temperatures from the south and cold temperatures of the north will set up.  The red circle is the area where I believe that the mixing line will have its greatest affect as it moves during the storm.  Finally, a series of low pressure centers will ride along the stationary front, as depicted by the L's on the map.

First Call Snow Map (No Totals Yet)

    Essentially, the map pretty much speaks for itself.  Want the best chance of all snow throughout the storm?  Head north!  Anyway, if things pan out according to current model guidance, be aware that we would be talking around a foot of snow, or more, for the hardest hit areas...but that is only if current model information verifies!  The storm is still off the coast, models will likely change a bit, and things will change, which is the usual with any winter storm.

Slightly Adjusted Snow Map

My Final Snowfall Map